Bank credit is comprised of mostly "securities" and "loans"

Securities are mostly US Treasury bonds and Mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

Loans include real estate, C&I, credit cards etc.
1) Loans as a % of bank credit have plunged as banks continue to absorb USTs, crowding out private domestic investment.
2) Securities as a % of bank credit is at an all-time high.
3) The ratio of loans to deposits also continues to plunge.
4) We have a cyclical upturn in the industrial sector but to really solidify a more lasting bout of inflation, loan growth needs to follow the cyclical upturn.

One of the reasons for "low-flation" over the last decade was the reduction in total bank lending growth.

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More from @EPBResearch

4 Dec
November Jobs Report Thread

There is both good news and bad news buried in the report.

Most often, too much attention is paid to the headline month on month numbers.

1) Image
2) In year over year terms, total nonfarm payrolls did not increase for the first time since the pandemic. Generally, this is a negative. Image
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Data as of Q3 2020 from IIF.

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Total includes: Corporate, Government, Household, and Financial. Image
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Why Stocks Will *Temporarily* Survive Higher Interest Rates

👇 Image
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GDP growth is in a cyclical upturn, but structural issues still exist.

Today's GDP report reminded us that debt-financed consumption policies have consequences.

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1/n
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2/n
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3/n

Read 7 tweets
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Total bank lending plus nonfinancial commercial paper contracted at a 6.5% annual rate over the last 13 weeks.

This is an improvement from -11.4% growth in August.
Excluding C&I loans to normalize for the crisis spike, growth was essentially flat in the 13 weeks ending November 4th.

Growth improved significantly from a rate of -10% in July.

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