Yemen Watchers, The Houthi designation is barreling through the 7th floor of State. Here is my understanding of the implications if there is a general Houthi terrorist designation:

1. 95% of Yemen's basic commodities including food is commercially imported. Traders cannot
engage in commercial transactions in Yemen if they touch the US banking systems at all [which they do].

2. Pompeo rejects UN calls, including WFP, to amend, alter the designation. So, all food/humanitarian aid will stop unless there are specific, complicated carveouts,
which can't realistically be completed during the remainder of this administration. There has been no interagency process as far as I understand, with the different agencies and departments not sharing their full analysis in a coordinated manner.
3. Houthis control the FSO Safer, the oil tanker that is about to disintegrate. A leak from the Safer will be 4x bigger than the Exxon Valdez and will close down the Red Sea if/when it breaks. The UN or commercial contractors may not be able to mitigate that risk.
4. Prisoner exchanges btw combatants may halt bc no international organization can serve as an intermediary. Prisoner exchanges are positive first steps to de-conflict.
5. There needs to be more analysis on the Central Bank - bc it is split between Aden and Sanaa - but the branches do coordinate. I am not sure of the fiscal, monetary implications of a DTO, but it could be profound on the entire economy and cause a complete collapse.
Bottom line: The Houthis are bad actors, the humanitarian crises first and foremost rests on their shoulders. But in an effort to spike Iran, Pompeo, et al may simply be doing immense harm to millions of Yemeni people without thought, or careful consideration.

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More from @Dave_Harden

3 Dec
1. Yemen and Middle East Watchers: I want to delve in further about the pending designation of the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO), distinctions with Hamas and Hezbollah from an economic and humanitarian perspective, and the resulting consequences...
2. ... of such a designation for the Yemeni people.
A few caveats: There normally is an intense interagency process that looks as designation through multiple perspectives - State, USAID, Treasury, etc.
3. I understand that there has not been a robust analytical process; although I don’t have privity. But here we go.
Read 24 tweets
2 Dec
Championing foreign aid is a tough sell, particularly these days. But here are some ways to make it work for Middle America and the world.

1. Connect the heartland to global development, there are some great examples here. @TheHillOpinion @drgilliland

thehill.com/opinion/intern…
2. Innovate/sell climate solutions + other tech to emerging markets.@DFCgov

3. Build global pandemic & climate tracking systems that also help the heartland. @HouseForeign

4. Bring global expertise to Middle American problems; learn from int'l best practices. @jakejsullivan
Given the recent calls for a Marshall Plan for Middle America, why not deploy the pros who have done it for years?

5. Establish development incubators in Peoria, Youngstown, Jackson, and other “forgotten” communities of America.@USGLC
Read 4 tweets
8 Jan
1/9. I served as an FSO for 17 months in Baghdad from 2012-2013, traveling from the north of Iraq in Kurdistan to Basra in the south. I worked w hundreds of Iraqis, coalition partners & close American friends. Baghdad was a searing experience - but I chose to be serve.
2/9. As an FSO, our family lived overseas, mainly in the Middle East from 1999-2016. My entire family had a great experience - it was all the kids knew. My kids also knew about war - too much about war, too many wars, in too many countries.
3/9. While we loved the foreign service, we also bore existential challenges and costs - challenges that continue even today as a direct result of our service to our country.
Read 9 tweets
25 Aug 18
1. Here is the @USGAO report: @USAID vetted PA creditors to ensure that the program assistance would not provide support to entities or individuals associated w terrorism & also conducted external assessments and financial audits of PA ministries of Health & Finance and Planning.
2. USAID documentation showed that, as required, officials checked the vetting status of each PA creditor within 12 months before USAID signed its debt relief grant agreements with the PA.
3. In addition, although USAID determined that it was not legally required to assess the PA Ministry of Health’s medical referral services and the Ministry of Finance and Planning’s petroleum procurement system, the agency commissioned external assessments of both ministries.
Read 7 tweets
24 Aug 18
1. As @DanielBShapiro notes, this is a hostile act to ... Israel. And of course the Palestinian people. The US is ceding space to #Hamas in #Gaza. No security professional recommends an aid cut off in Gaza - none.
wtop.com/national/2018/…
2. To the doubters, those without facts @tanstaaflpnw Read the GAO report on @usaid assistance to the Palestinians. gao.gov/assets/700/693…. @USAIDWBG had the highest level of accountability, results and integrity in @usaid. Clean @USGAO audits are the gold standard.
3. Name other operating units anywhere in the USG where year in and year out IG and @USGAO regularly report clean audits? Fact of the matter @USAIDWBG is the best in the business. @jdgreenblatt45 @USAIDMiddleEast
Read 7 tweets

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