1. Yemen and Middle East Watchers: I want to delve in further about the pending designation of the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO), distinctions with Hamas and Hezbollah from an economic and humanitarian perspective, and the resulting consequences...
2. ... of such a designation for the Yemeni people.
A few caveats: There normally is an intense interagency process that looks as designation through multiple perspectives - State, USAID, Treasury, etc.
A few caveats: There normally is an intense interagency process that looks as designation through multiple perspectives - State, USAID, Treasury, etc.
3. I understand that there has not been a robust analytical process; although I don’t have privity. But here we go.
4. The Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah are bad actors, they have inflicted immense pain and suffering on their people and are a direct threat to US security interests. They are indeed terror organizations.
5. The Houthis in particular have caused immense suffering for 20 million Yemenis. They bear the primary responsibility for the world’s worst humanitarian crises. They also accelerate regional instability.
6. So, let’s be clear, the human cost to Houthi control over much of Yemen is staggeringly horrific.
But, there are important operating differences between economic and humanitarian assistance activities in areas controlled by Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Let’s start.
But, there are important operating differences between economic and humanitarian assistance activities in areas controlled by Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Let’s start.
7. Hamas in the West Bank: Hamas is underground and under pressure from the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the Israelis. The Israelis control all access points into the West Bank. There is a vibrant Palestinian private sector and NGO community.
8. USAID and UN have decades of experience working with vetted Palestinian organizations and can avoid Hamas through its systematic review of assistance programs. There is not much leakage to Hamas in the West Bank.
9. Hamas in Gaza: Hamas is the authoritarian governing authority in Gaza. They are very bad actors, there is now a lost generation of Gazans. Still access points into Gaza are controlled by the Israelis, Egyptians and the PA.
10. There are some PA entities as well as legitimate private sector firms, NGOs, schools and hospitals in Gaza. UNRWA is practically a shadow government. Thus, while difficult, it’s possible to help the people in Gaza while remaining outside of Hamas control.
11. The FTO designation of Hamas in Gaza, including specific vetting requirements, USAID regulations and OFAC waivers has been in place since 2005. The system is clunky, but from an implementation perspective in terms of delivering aid to vulnerable populations, workable.
12. Neither Egypt, the PA, nor Israel would like to see a famine in Gaza.
13. Hezbollah in Lebanon: Hezbollah is a militarily effective non state actor that has repeatedly attacked the United States, has destabilized Lebanon, and is a close proxy of Iran. Hezbollah partly controls some government functions in Lebanon.
14. Nevertheless, Hezbollah is not monolithic. There are multiple actors, political parties, NGOs and businesses aligned with US interests who actively oppose Hezbollah. It’s not difficult to engage the Lebanese people and communities outside of Hezbollah.
15. Thus, the US can maintain full and meaningful bilateral relations with the Government of Lebanon and its people and effectively help avert widespread and sustained humanitarian disasters.
16. The Houthis: The Houthis exercise full authoritarian control over 80% of the population, roughly 20% of the land mass of Yemen, and the main port of Hudaydeh and airport in Sana’a. There are no access points into Houthi controlled territory other than through the Houthis.
17. There are also no systems in place, there are not years of humanitarian practice that allow humanitarian actors avoid the Houthis. This is fundamentally different from the West Bank, Gaza, or Lebanon.
18. Thus, a designation of the Houthis as an FTO, without the related experience and systems in the West Bank, Gaza, or Lebanon will likely cause an immediate collapse in Yemen.
19. Here is the specific risk: A full collapse of the economy and complete devaluation of the currency. A likely end to commercial food imports requiring letters of credit; WFP food shipments; UNICEF and WHO water, sanitation and health imports.
20. ICRC may not be able to broker prisoner exchanges. And, there will be no means to mitigate the risk of a major oil spill from the FSO Safer tanker.
21. Yemen is not the West Bank and Gaza or Lebanon. Each situation is unique and requires careful analysis.
22. Secretary Pompeo has ignored the calls of career staff, the humanitarian community, long time Republicans David Beasley of WFP and Henrietta Fore of UNICEF, and other Republican members of congress and the National Security community.
23. Bottom line: Pompeo is trying to press Iran. A FTO designation of the Houthis in Yemen will fail to affect Iran’s governing clerics. Instead, Pompeo is risking a famine for millions of people in Yemen.
24. State is required to brief Congress next week on this pending designation, Pompeo will need to be held to account for an ill-considered, ill-timed, and reckless decision. @HouseForeign @SenateForeign
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