NEW: There are a number of open questions about #2020Census data quality raised in the @USGAO's latest report on the potential impact of COVID-19, plus the Trump administration's last-minute schedule changes that cut short counting and processing time gao.gov/assets/720/711…
@USGAO 2. COVID-19 forced delay of the count of people experiencing homelessness, which could result in misrepresenting where these populations were living on Census Day (4/1). @USGAO says bureau has not explained how it plans to document how that could impact data products' accuracy.
@USGAO 3. The #2020Census door-knocking in August into early September was conducted under Trump administration pressure to finish counting early using pay bonuses to field workers and other procedures that were not tested beforehand, so how they could affect data quality is unknown.
@USGAO 4. Under Trump admin pressure to end counting early, the Census Bureau accelerated door-knocking efforts. Did that disproportionately affect the quality of data about historically undercounted groups, including Black people, Latinos & American Indians living on tribal lands?
@USGAO 5. To try to count unresponsive households in Louisiana that were hit by hurricanes, the Census Bureau leaned more heavily on government records, some of which did not have information about young children. @USGAO says the bureau is now reviewing that move.
@USGAO 6. The Census Bureau told @USGAO it did not remove any levels of quality reviews of state-by-state counts by subject matter experts, but as of October, the Commerce Department, which oversees the bureau, hasn't given GAO a copy of the new processing timeline.
@USGAO 7. The @USGAO says that under the current processing schedule that was shortened by the Trump administration, there is "little or no time left" for the Census Bureau to re-process #2020Census population files state by state to find errors as the bureau did for the 2010 count.
@USGAO 8. The Trump administration's last-minute #2020Census schedule changes cut short the testing time for IT systems the bureau is using right now to process the results. That left the bureau with less time than originally planned to address any system defects.
@USGAO 9. The Trump admin's decision to cut the #2020Census schedule short at the last minute forced the bureau to stop adding new addresses to its main address list weeks before counting ended, which, @USGAO found, "could limit the data available to review for apportionment purposes."
@USGAO 10. The @USGAO says it's not clear if the Census Bureau "will have time to assure" the quality of the #2020Census redistricting data if it sticks with its current accelerated plan to release them around the legal reporting deadline of March 31, 2021.
@USGAO 11. @USGAO estimates the total cost of the #2020Census changes due to COVID-19 and the Trump admin's last-minute schedule cuts is over $1.8B, which falls within the Census Bureau's $2B contingency budget. That amount could go up if the bureau gets more time to process results.
@USGAO 12. @USGAO says the Census Bureau is working with independent scientific consultants with the JASON group to come up with ways to release more indicators of the quality of #2020Census data before they're released, per the recommendations of @ASA_SciPol and other groups.
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NEW: The Census Bureau — using government records and not the #2020Census results — estimates that the U.S. population as of April 1 was somewhere within the range of 330.7 million to 335.5 million people
2. The U.S. population may have grown by as much as 8.7% since 2010, according to the Census Bureau's Demographic Analysis estimates based on gov't records.
3. People who died from COVID-19 before Census Day (April 1) were taken into account when the bureau worked on these estimates, said Eric Jensen, the bureau's senior technical expert for Demographic Analysis.
BREAKING: A third federal court has blocked Trump’s attempt to omit unauthorized immigrants from the #2020Census numbers used to reallocate House seats. #SCOTUS is already set to hear arguments Nov. 30 on Trump’s push. From the order by a court in Maryland beta.documentcloud.org/documents/2040…
2. A 3-judge court in Maryland found President Trump's census apportionment memo to be unlawful, while declining to rule on if it's unconstitutional. Panel includes 4th U.S. Circuit Judge Pamela Harris, plus U.S. District Judge Ellen Hollander and Judge Paula Xinis in Maryland.
3. The 3-judge court in Maryland has blocked the federal government "from transmitting to the President any data or information on the number of undocumented immigrants in each state intended for use in apportionment."
Don't forget: after this election comes redistricting — and we may soon see a radically different way of redrawing state legislative districts in Missouri that doesn't take into account children, noncitizens and other residents who are not eligible to vote npr.org/2020/11/06/931…
2. Presidential elections come around every four years, but the consequences of redistricting are locked in for a decade.
We are talking about lines and maps that determine how much political representation each person living in the U.S. gets for the next 10 years.
3. In general, political mapmakers around the country have long drawn state legislative districts based on the total number of people living in an area as determined by the census.
It's an open question whether it's legal to redraw districts based on only eligible voters.
Last night, Missouri voters passed a state constitutional amendment that could lead to the redrawing of legislative districts based on the number of U.S. citizens old enough to vote rather than of all residents. From Amendment 3: sos.mo.gov/CMSImages/Elec…
2. It's not clear exactly how "one person, one vote" will be interpreted when Missouri's voting maps are redrawn.
In general, states draw voting districts based on the total population, i.e., census numbers of every person living in an area, regardless of citizenship status.
3. Drawing voting districts based on the number of U.S. citizens old enough to vote "would be advantageous to Republicans and Non-Hispanic Whites," wrote GOP strategist Thomas Hofeller, who advocated for adding a citizenship question to census forms: documentcloud.org/documents/6077…
On Friday, the Census Bureau's internal experts released recommendations for how to comply with Trump admin's directive to create citizenship data that a GOP strategist said would be "advantageous to Republicans & Non-Hispanic Whites" during redistricting: www2.census.gov/ces/wp/2020/CE…
2. It's worth remembering the Census Bureau working group that wrote this technical paper was formed when the Trump admin was saying that block-level citizenship data (produced through a citizenship question on census forms) were needed to better enforce the Voting Rights Act...
3. ...and after the Supreme Court found that using the Voting Rights Act as the justification for the now-blocked citizenship question appeared to be "contrived," the Trump admin dropped that talking point and focused on redistricting. That history is summed up in this footnote:
BREAKING: A second federal court has blocked President Trump’s attempt to exclude unauthorized immigrants from the census numbers that determine each state’s share of House seats. The 3-judge court in California declares Trump's memo is unconstitutional. assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7274…
2. "The policy which the Presidential Memorandum attempts to enact has already been rejected by the Constitution, the applicable statutes, & 230 years of history," write 9th Circuit Judge Richard Clifton, District Judge Lucy Koh & District Judge Edward Chen in Northern California
3. The 3-judge court in California has issued a permanent injunction blocking the commerce secretary & Census Bureau from delivering to the president any report with info about unauthorized immigrants in each state and that's part of the decennial census. assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7274…