Thread by @jamesjohnson252

I’ve done some polling for @thetimes looking at how voters feel about the Oct 31st deadline being missed.

Most strikingly, *half* of Leave voters say they feel “betrayed” by extension. This is substantially higher than at previous extensions.

thetimes.co.uk/article/genera…
1/6

Here’s the graph for Remain and Leave voters. In addition to the betrayed figure, 57% of Leave voters feel “disappointed” by the fact we are no longer leaving on 31st October. 2/6

But does it matter? There is vulnerability for CON – but no one is taking advantage of it.

1. Brexit Party using arguments on the deal instead of 31/10
2. CON dominating Leave narrative
3. Farage AWOL and @SebastianEPayne story yday suggests BXP may not stand everywhere
3/6

Plus, share of votes going to Brexit Party from 2 main parties from @YouGov tracking shows they’re increasingly a threat to Labour, not just the Conservatives.

Labour Leave seats could be impacted just as much as Conservative seats – like in 2015 with UKIP. 4/6

1 in 2 Leave voters betrayed looks bad for CON.

But it’s possible people feel betrayed by Parliament, and/or it’s a consequence of general polarisation and heightening of debate.

This could end up being an *advantage* to the Conservatives if no one capitalises. 5/6

One caveat to all this – we haven’t actually got past 31st October yet. The actions and movements of Farage and the Brexit Party over next few days will be key to this Election

Piece here: thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/m…
And tables here: jlpartners.co.uk/poll 6/6