Thread by @jamesjohnson252

I’ve written a new piece for @timesredbox

If YouGov is right, it will be best Tory result in 30+ years

This will be hailed as a Grand Realignment - CON gaining the working classes and rewriting the electoral map

But this is too hasty a conclusion. (1/5)
thetimes.co.uk/edition/commen…

Why?

First, CON gains may be in Labour Leave seats but they are winning them because LAB is falling.

Look at these 3 Tory gains from YouGov MRP:

Great Grimsby: CON share in 2017 was 42%, now it’s still 42%
Don Valley: 2017 42%, now 42%
Dudley North: 2017 46%, now 46%

(2/5)

Second, new voters CON are winning (they’re getting some that are offsetting BXP losses) are instinctively Labour.

Get Brexit Done + Corbyn unlocks them. Remove, and NHS/cost of living dominate. Focus groups show they haven’t changed their minds on CON intentions on these (3/5)

This is concerning in long-term because if these voters go, Tories are running out of places to look for more.

25-45s, middle classes, still as hostile as in ‘17, if not more so. Canterbury in many ways the most revealing seat from YouGov - LAB holding it on a bigger vote (4/5)

So if (big if) Tories win a big majority on Dec 12th, be wary of inevitable commentary about a ‘Grand Realignment’.

The path taken at this Election seals victory for 5 years. But it also means the Party has work to do to hold these voters or to build coalitions elsewhere. (5/5)