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I’ve written a piece for today’s @timesredbox @thetimes, setting out thoughts on my time running private polling at Downing St and the challenges the Conservatives face - including why it is a high-risk strategy to pursue older Leave voters alone (1/7) thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/c…
I presented to Cabinet on the 2017 Election results (1 called it ‘the most depressing thing I’ve ever heard in this room’) and said we should pursue ‘Conservative Considerers’ - older and winnable working class voters, who wouldn’t vote CON in 17 coz of public services (2/7)
This was and shld be a key group for the Conservatives. But now many of them are tempted by the Brexit Party. like in 2015 CON has to look for votes elsewhere; there simply might not be enough Leavers up for grabs in seats that matter (3/7)
Beware stories of a bounce. There were good polls for CON over the weekend but as @GoodwinMJ has pointed out the public are v volatile. And BXP vote share over the weekend is at or above the level UKIP got in 2015 - enough to swing a result (4/7)
Pursuing Leave voters alone is high risk. A lot of the most passionate Leavers are in rock solid Labour seats. And recent @YouGov polls have shown Remain voters are more likely to vote than Leave voters (5/7)
The new PM has had a strong start. But more than policies is needed to win younger voters. Multi-£bn NHS announcement barely moved dial for us. Voters go on perceptions of values, competence, and leadership - not on individual policies (6/7)
Add in the dangers of being perceived as a divided party, and it hammers home how high risk an early election would be for the party. And if it does, its best route to victory is to try and bring Leavers and Remainers together not drive them apart. (7/7)
