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Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
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4 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
A whole-of-America may get COVID approach.
cnn.com/2020/10/25/pol…
A whole-of-government may get COVID approach too.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Hou…
🏳️🏳️🏳️🏳️

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More from @aaronsojourner

Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
4 Dec
Happy #JobsDay. 8:30 ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.

Forecasts' center:
+432,000 jobs
6.8% unemployment, tick down from 6.9%

But lots of reason to expect weaker jobs growth.
+245K jobs gained last month (mid-Oct to mid-Nov).

Small +11K revisions of last 2 months.

This continues the deceleration of job growth we seen steadily for months.
We are down 9.8 million jobs since Feb and growth is decelerating, likely to turn negative over the current month.

For comparison, during the Great Recession, we lost fewer than 9 million jobs. Image
Read 18 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
3 Dec
New tick up to 11.4% in the share of small businesses reporting that they decreased the number of employees during Nov 16-22, @uscensusbureau #SmallBusinessPulse survey. Highest share in 5.5 months.

Share increasing # of employees down for last 2 weeks, lowest in 6.5 months.
The share rehiring furloughed or laid off employees fell to 3%, its lowest point since start of survey in early August.

The share not rehiring has risen every week with data since early October.
Expectations worsening.

The share of small businesses expecting that, in the next 6 months, they will need to identify & hire new employees is falling.

Small businesses increasingly say they need public health & liquidity.
Read 7 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
3 Dec
That's more victims killed than in the 9/11 attack on the Twin Towers.
That's more Americans killed in one day than in the **19 years** of war in Afghanistan that followed 9/11.
So many wonderful people in our communities & so much loss.
Read 5 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
23 Oct
The labor market is stalling. This is not a V-shaped jobs recovery.

22.5 million jobs were lost in March & April.

The U.S. added an average of 3.1 million jobs monthly during May+June+July.

In Aug+Sept, we averaged only 35% of that rate, 1.1 million monthly.
The rate of growth slowed in almost every state. The rate of change:

- accelerated in just 3 states,

- stayed constant in NM and SD (V-shaped),

- slowed by more than half in Wisconsin & 34 other states,

- turned negative in Hawaii & DC.

Extremes are small states, some noise.
Here's the trend in jobs over the last year in Wisconsin. This is not V-shaped. The rate of change slowed by half in Aug+Sept versus May+June+July.
Read 6 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
23 Oct
The president inherited strong job-growth trends, coasted off it, and tried to take credit for it.

His talking points do not match reality.
#NoFool
Same story with the unemployment rate.
This chicken may claim it's doing a wonderful job driving. It just took over the wheel when momentum was going the right way.

When circumstances require more than squawking & preening, crash.
Read 11 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
20 Oct
New data out this morning on the number of jobs in each state in September.

How much has the number of jobs changed in each state since February, as a percent of February jobs?

Idaho is down 0.9% of February jobs.

The whole U.S. is down 7.0%.

Hawaii is down 18.9%. Image
For most states, the share of jobs lost since Feb 2020 exceeds their share lost during the Great Recession.

For states on the orange line, their share lost now is abt equal to their share lost during GR. Above the line, means a greater share now. Below line means smaller share. Image
Correction: now including Idaho. Image
Read 4 tweets

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