Ware County Election Supervisor Carlos Nelson told me this is false: No one has obtained any machine from his office. There was a human-error tabulation issue discovered during the hand recount, the tallies of which were matched by the just-ended machine recount
2/6 According to Nelson: this involved absentee ballots and human error with tabulation equipment, which have nothing to do with the Dominion voting machines that people use to mark their ballots on Election Day at the precinct.
3/6 Ware County elections workers scanned a batch of ballots but there was a jam during the tabulating process. So ballots needed to be re-scanned. The ballots were then rescanned/tabulated, but they forgot to erase the prior scan
4/6 As a result of the tabulation problem and the human error, the final numbers in Ware County were off. It wasn't caught until there was the Risk Limiting Audit was performed where ballots were counted by hand. A subsequent machine recount confirmed the handcount numbers
5/6 What are the numbers we're talking about? Very small, says Nelson. In the end, Biden's vote count dropped by 42 in Ware (4,211 to 4,169); Trump rose by 37 (9,865 to 9,903). One of those new Trump votes was an overvote that the elex board said clearly was intended for Trump
6/6 Nelson was clearly exasperated by the disinformation disseminated by Steve Bannon: "Social media and people are gonna make what they can out of it to fit their narrative."

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More from @MarcACaputo

4 Nov
Tweet 1 of 11

How could Trump win Florida?

Let us take you on a tour @Politico, starting with

12/4/18

“The Democrats’ Hispanic Problem”

politi.co/2mlBdvn
2/11

01/25/19

“Florida is Trump’s state to lose”

It’s not just Hispanic voters, it’s white and black voters, too

politi.co/32aGNCx
3/11

01/30/19

“Trump Venezuela policy scores in Florida”

Notice that it’s not just about Cuban voters for Trump; Miami is key. He’s playing on his opponents’ half of the field

politi.co/2IzoQmG
Read 11 tweets
4 Nov
Tweet 1 of 4
Florida has 67 counties but since presidential campaigns are marketing efforts that orient spending by media market, here are the preliminary 2020 election results broken down by those 10 regions (thanks @DavidCypkin for the graphics!)

Story: politi.co/2TSugzg
2/4 Here's a side-by-side of 2020 vs. 2016
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
1/4

Who will win Florida? I really don't know. My feeling changes by the minute, interview & data set, the latter 2 of which I've swum in. I can see it being very close or near 3 (a Florida landslide lol). I default to "very close" because of interviews & data, inc. poll avgs
2/4

As for FL polls, if you don't have a 1k sample w/Hispanic oversample, be very wary of relying on its toplines. Many don't provide party breaks (% of Rs, Ds & Is voting for the candidates). Use polls as a guidepost, but pay attn to its partisan/electorate composition, to
3/4 FL has a D+1 electorate right now (Ds cast 39% of ballots; Rs 38%). Rs are expected to change that Election Day but by how much?

Ds think Biden wins R+1 & R+2 electorate. Rs say no to the latter maybe to the former.

Historically, Ds win in D+ electorates, Rs win in R+ years
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
Tweet 1 of 3

Democrats stopped the bleeding on the last day of early voting, gaining a new 13k early ballots on Republicans. Dem margin: 108,123, which should grow as more ABs come in

Total votes: 9m
Rep: 3.4m (38%)
Dem: 3.5m (39%)
Ind: 2.1m (23%)

politi.co/3mBC1Ga
Tweet 2/3

Today's 10k foot view story of what we're looking at is here
politi.co/3mBC1Ga
Tweet 3/3

Background threads on how we got here, the differences between counting ballots vs. tabulating votes, independents etc.

Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
Tweet 1 of 9

Drawing from our reporters with residency or roots in or around the nation’s biggest battlegrounds, @politico profiled the 8 key states where the presidential election will be decided

AZ, FL, GA, MI, MN, NC, PA & WI

Take a tour below 👇
2) Arizona

There’s a reason Biden has spent more on TV in the Phoenix media market than in any other in the nation

The once-crimson state is changing fast

And there’s a Senate seat in play

via @lbarronlopez

politi.co/381LAdj
2) Florida

Republicans are relying on their numerous high-propensity voters to carry the day; the Democrats need a more-complicated coalition

via me

politi.co/3mBC1Ga
Read 10 tweets
1 Nov
The use of Jumbotron video messages in the midst of Trump rallies —in the case of the Dubuque event, he’s showing a mashup of Biden NAFTA, trade & gaffes — is an innovative technique other campaigns will make standard in the future
The rally is being broadcast live on Fox, which is showing the rally showing people watching clips from Fox played on the Jumbotron
If memory serves, Nixon invented the technique of airport rallies and his campaign might be associated with the first use of the term "photo op"
Read 4 tweets

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