Important points in David's Sunday morning rant.

There is no meaningful political discussion in Parliament about the impact of No Deal.

There is no public push-back against No Deal from cabinet ministers, who know better.

It is taken as fact that the EU is bad.

/1
In that context, how can Boris Johnson move to compromise on LPF, governance and fish.

And so, Johnson is now among the least popular Tory politicians, as seen by Tories.

/2


And Liz Truss is the most popular.

But guess what, Truss just signed an FTA with Japan that includes commitments on level playing field.

Sovereignty, anyone?

/3
Finally, No Deal won't just mean No FTA. Brexiteers will next set their sights on the Withdrawal Agreement.

The economic logic is clear:

It is estimated that No Deal will cost the UK taxpayer 40 billion pounds next year.

Hmmmm, where can one find 40 billion quid?

/4
You guessed it. The financial settlement agreed in the WA amounts to payments of 39 billion pounds.

Brexiteers have ALWAYS said the financial settlement is a down payment for an FTA.

The will say: "No FTA, no divorce fee."

Simples.

/5
Once you've crossed the Rubicon and have violated the WA in a "very specific and limited way", the step to doing it again is easy.

Regardless of what this will mean for the Belfast agreement, the UK's international standing, and the rights of UK citizens in the EU.

/6
After No Deal, the Brexiteers will set their sights on dismantling the Withdrawal Agreement.

And a prime minister that accepts No Deal to feed his backbenchers a 'sovereignty' sandwich, does not offer much confidence that he will be able to resist them on the WA.

/7
In any case, read @DavidHenigUK's thread. It's depressing but worth it.

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More from @remkorteweg

3 Dec
Dinsdag en/of woensdag komt de Taxation Bill in het Britse parlement.

De wet komt in de kritieke eindfase van de #Brexit onderhandelingen.

Waarom is de wet zo belangrijk?

Deze wet kan een volgende schending van het Noord-Ierse Protocol betekenen (na de IM Bill).

/1
VK wil met de wet eenzijdig kunnen bepalen of Britse export naar N-Ierland aan tarieven onderhevig is, of niet.

Maar in het exit-verdrag is besloten dat EU & VK dit samen gaan bepalen.

Goederen die eenmaal in Belfast zijn aangekomen, mogen vrij doorgaan, de EU in.

/2
Dat was het hele idee om een harde Ierse grens te voorkomen.

Maar met deze wet zou de achterdeur open gezet kunnen worden naar de Interne Markt, en komt de Ierse grens weer in zicht.

Politiek zou deze wet een klap in het gezicht van de EU zijn.

/3
Read 12 tweets
12 Nov
"The Caribbean doppelgänger of the Irish border"

This story about Anguilla & #Brexit is fascinating and underreported.

And relevant for 🇳🇱.

Why? Anguilla and its citizens rely HEAVILY on Sint Maarten and St Eustatius, both are Dutch municipalities

/1


mycountryeurope.com/politics/brexi…
Anguilla: pop. 14.000, is a British Overseas Territory

It gets 90% of its fuel (which it needs for energy and fresh water) from St Eustatius.

Main travel hub is Sint Maarten. It has the only airport for long-haul flights.

FR-administered Saint-Martin is the medical hub.

/2
Look, I drew a map!

/3
Read 8 tweets
27 Sep
So, a little thread on the challenges we face in #Brexit Round 9 and Boris’ backfiring IM Bill.

Despite (or perhaps, because of) the collapse in trust due to the IM Bill, a deal between the EU and UK can still be done. But it will come at a cost. And BJ will have to pay it.

/1
EU has made it clear it wont freeze FTA talks in response to the IM Bill. ‘Parallelism’ does not apply regarding implementation of NI Protocol. But EU27 will consider legal action once their deadline expires later this week.

/2
But BJ may anticipate this, and "want" it.

Nothing says “I’m tough on Brussels” than being sued by EU lawyers.

/3
Read 22 tweets
25 Sep
Great thread on the Kent permit.

Now how does it work on the other side of the North Sea?

/1
The Port of Rotterdam (incl ferries at Hook of Holland and Vlaardingen) uses its @Portbase system as a “digital border”.

For export to UK, it’s mandatory to pre-notify all customs documents through this system. Before arriving at the Port.

portbase.com/en/services/no…

/2
Everything is digital. It’s all online. Of course.

For past 2 years (!!) Port, NL government, Customs, export agencies, logistics folks have been working with their counterparts across EU27 to ensure relevant haulers across EU27 know about the system.

/3
Read 10 tweets
21 Sep
The Netherlands is traditionally one of America's staunchest allies. Atlanticism runs deep.

But what does the Dutch population think of today's transatlantic relations, European strategic autonomy, and a 'Cold War' with China?

We took the Dutch pulse. (N = 23.000)

THREAD /1
The Dutch are pivoting to 'more Europe'.

72% of the Dutch population support deeper cooperation with France & Germany, in light of Brexit and Trump's America First policies.

/2
Interestingly, even among the Eurosceptics (those that support PVV, Forum, SGP), more people support deeper cooperation with Berlin & Paris, then do not.

/3
Read 12 tweets
2 Sep
Good resumé of Barnier's comments at a very good @iiea event.

Barnier also repeated that implementation of the WA is "only way to prevent hard border" in Ireland and "preserve integrity of SM."

/1
Barnier: "encouraging steps" have been taken by @michaelgove, but EU must be sure that EU customs codes is implemented "in its entirety" and that "all necessary controls on live animals and animal-derived products" arriving in NI from GB are in place

(NI-GB border, anyone?)

/2
And in case it was unclear, @MichelBarnier repeated a number of times:

"There will be no EU-UK deal if there is no agreement on fish and LPF/ State Aid."

/3
Read 4 tweets

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