Share this page!

David Henig Profile picture
Twitter logo
6 Dec, 13 tweets, 4 min read
And we swing towards optimism, as it seems the UK compromised more than expected on fish. And as I think this is a slight exaggeration of the EU Level Playing Field condition (the ratchet is unlikely to be automatic) we may be closing in.
Other reports are more pessimistic... as if this was likely to be easy to follow. reuters.com/article/uk-bri…
Another vote for optimism. Level Playing Field and governance remain, but marginally easier if French fishing fleets have been given continued access. And the solution isn't overly difficult (processes for ratchet and tariffs that probably won't be used)
More optimism. Increasingly looking like the PM decided deal and the level playing field to be the last issue. Will be interesting to hear the UK government lines (which have been quiet all day).
We wait to see any Conservative backbench reaction, but looks tonight like the Boris Johnson desire for a deal has beaten the Boris Johnson desire for sovereign independence. Not all done and dusted yet, but closing in.
And yes, a deal will be worth having. For the absence of tariffs. For Northern Ireland and customs cooperation. But most of all because it will finally settle that the UK can't run away from our geography, and have to work with the EU. A new floor under UK-EU relations.
Well the briefing wars will keep going. Not over yet for sure, but the signs are on balance towards a deal.
! (we wait for tomorrow)

(ERG, please don't deluge the PM with messages...)

Selfishly though a deal would mean the decline and ultimately demise of Brexit twitter...
Fish again, from one of my go-to sources on the subject. Unsurprising if the UK side don't want to confirm concession tonight. Just to note there is always a risk of a deal unravelling if you didn't properly prepare domestic stakeholders.
Sounds like Northern Ireland might be the messiest part of a UK-EU deal - which is only to be expected given the delicacy of the issues.
In case it wasn't obvious the final choreography of a complex trade deal is complex. The big issues, and potentially some smallprint / related matters of relevance to both sides (for example I wonder if soon after a deal we hear about data or financial services equivalence?)
(Just realising if there's an agreement I'll have to read all 1800 pages or whatever. Everyone has to compromise for a deal I guess)

Night all, let's see how the optimism meter reads tomorrow.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with David Henig

David Henig Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
7 Dec
Morning. And its Groundhog Day today.
Some useful threads will follow, first on the Northern Ireland protocol, where unfettered is still being defined...
And on fish and level playing field. The latter seems, has always seemed, the most problematic, because the UK has apparently ruled out any compromise on shared minumum levels even if not automatic. That would be a deal breaker, but seems... unnecessary.
Read 14 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
6 Dec
We need to talk about UK politics. More specifically we need to talk about the absence of opposition to a no-deal Brexit risking Scottish independence, Northern Irish peace, the end of the mass market car industry, more expensive food, and damaged relations with US and EU 1/n
Project fear and the red wall. The first meaning that every serious threat, such as that of Nissan that their plant will be unsustainable, is dismissed with little discussion. The red wall, apparently so angry with Labour about the EU they are afraid to have a position. 2/
Because 'sovereignty' apparently. But a particularly nefarious form of sovereignty in which the normal kind of things you discuss in a Free Trade Agreement - shared rules, access to waters - become when discussed with the EU unacceptable infringements and threats. 3/
Read 18 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
5 Dec
Nobody walks away, but still no progress?
What are deadlines anyway?
No hopes being raised here. Or lowered. Last chance saloon. And what about Northern Ireland?
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
5 Dec
Well, this.

But something else - trust. So many apparently 'extra' EU demands, or indeed the UK refusal, come down to a lack of trust between the parties.

The usually loose rules tied to the preferential access of a Free Trade Agreement rely on trust which isn't present. Yet..
The reason there might be a deal, even in the absence of the normally essential trust, is some underlying belief on both sides that no deal will mean worse relations. And that then is the joint gamble that will be needed by the leaders, and...
The leaders if they find a way forward will then have to sell their joint gamble to their domestic constituencies. I don't think this time the UK can declare outright victory, for EU could then veto. But the PM isn't just going to roll over the ERG. Fine margins. We wait.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
4 Dec
Blunt hardly starts to describe this letter. I've been asked a few times whether business is ready for January 1 and always reply that none I have spoken with are completely confident. So many individual changes within the one big change.
Worth noting that a Free Trade Agreement only sets out the framework for trade relations between countries. Implementation is another matter. Now I hear some such discussions have happened, but as per the deal as a whole, time running out. theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
Just for some Friday afternoon fun I started scanning through the original drafts of an FTA prepared by the EU and UK to get some sense of what might be in text, and what would need operational clarification. Rather a lot of the latter, sorry...
Read 11 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
4 Dec
Good to have a couple of real experts explaining outstanding issues in UK-EU talks are not, as the UK government would have it, just fish. Though EU Member States have to show they are fighting for their fishing fleets.
I don't think Fabian has been knowingly optimistic of prospects for a UK-EU deal for months, but he will reflect wider EU thinking.
It seems most likely that yesterday's setback was the UK thinking a concession would solve the whole Level Playing Field issue, and being surprised when it didn't. This appears to be a pattern. But doesn't mean it is unsolvable.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @DavidHenigUK has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @DavidHenigUK!

Read all threads by @DavidHenigUK