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7 Dec, 17 tweets, 6 min read
Morning. And its Groundhog Day today.
Some useful threads will follow, first on the Northern Ireland protocol, where unfettered is still being defined...
And on fish and level playing field. The latter seems, has always seemed, the most problematic, because the UK has apparently ruled out any compromise on shared minumum levels even if not automatic. That would be a deal breaker, but seems... unnecessary.
Your reminder closing complex deals is never easy. But there are ways to facilitate and EU is good at doing this if you meet their red lines. But still the biggest concern that the UK never understood level playing field terms are fundamental to the EU.
In the UK, one man's decision. Allegedly backed by a Cabinet who in reality will be quite happy to blame the PM either way. The temptation to send Michael Gove to seal the deal and end his leadership ambitions must be there...
As it happens...
For what it's worth it seems likely that there was some kite flying last night to see what the reaction to a deal might be on the UK side. It... didn't go well. Which is the fear of those on the EU side - that Johnson has talked up sovereignty too far for reasonable compromise.
I might be on some media or other later today talking about my favourite christmas reci.... if only. Depending on how many updates there have been since I might be optimistic or pessimistic, but still on the fence.
Oh yes, 24 days left to the biggest one day change in UK trading terms in history. Just the £2 billion of trade per day at stake. ft.com/content/3c0358…
Picture for those who were missing their Brexit flowcharts. From what I can see (and Jon also suggests) today has the right elements for final deal choreography with Gove in Brussels, and quite possibly also therefore a no-deal announcement.
Has always been my belief. Though rather raises the issue of only listening to those who won't challenge your views.
Right. If today ends with a statement saying the PM and vdL are going to make another last effort to reach a deal after all of this I think the Brexit watchers finally have to stage an intervention.
Fundamentally UK politics (on all sides, but differently) cannot reconcile leaving the EU but still being in Europe. Listen to Norwegian, Swiss, or Turkish officials. A horrible experience, they say, when you always want to leave the table but can't.
I think we can safely dismiss any Barnier statement on deadlines given the record to date. We're long past the point any agreement can receive proper scrutiny or business be ready to implement it.
UK-EU talks Wednesday deadline latest
On this at least the UK and EU are united, against their own businesses. Nobody, it is clear, is in any kind of hurry.

Because, hey, there are still 16 working days until huge new barriers are erected to the world's second largest trading relationship.

The problem again - EU and UK will have to upset some of their domestic constituencies to get a deal. Neither seem prepared to do so. But neither want to walk away either. Stalemate.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
6 Dec
And we swing towards optimism, as it seems the UK compromised more than expected on fish. And as I think this is a slight exaggeration of the EU Level Playing Field condition (the ratchet is unlikely to be automatic) we may be closing in.
Other reports are more pessimistic... as if this was likely to be easy to follow. reuters.com/article/uk-bri…
Another vote for optimism. Level Playing Field and governance remain, but marginally easier if French fishing fleets have been given continued access. And the solution isn't overly difficult (processes for ratchet and tariffs that probably won't be used)
Read 13 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
6 Dec
We need to talk about UK politics. More specifically we need to talk about the absence of opposition to a no-deal Brexit risking Scottish independence, Northern Irish peace, the end of the mass market car industry, more expensive food, and damaged relations with US and EU 1/n
Project fear and the red wall. The first meaning that every serious threat, such as that of Nissan that their plant will be unsustainable, is dismissed with little discussion. The red wall, apparently so angry with Labour about the EU they are afraid to have a position. 2/
Because 'sovereignty' apparently. But a particularly nefarious form of sovereignty in which the normal kind of things you discuss in a Free Trade Agreement - shared rules, access to waters - become when discussed with the EU unacceptable infringements and threats. 3/
Read 18 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
5 Dec
Nobody walks away, but still no progress?
What are deadlines anyway?
No hopes being raised here. Or lowered. Last chance saloon. And what about Northern Ireland?
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
5 Dec
Well, this.

But something else - trust. So many apparently 'extra' EU demands, or indeed the UK refusal, come down to a lack of trust between the parties.

The usually loose rules tied to the preferential access of a Free Trade Agreement rely on trust which isn't present. Yet..
The reason there might be a deal, even in the absence of the normally essential trust, is some underlying belief on both sides that no deal will mean worse relations. And that then is the joint gamble that will be needed by the leaders, and...
The leaders if they find a way forward will then have to sell their joint gamble to their domestic constituencies. I don't think this time the UK can declare outright victory, for EU could then veto. But the PM isn't just going to roll over the ERG. Fine margins. We wait.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
4 Dec
Blunt hardly starts to describe this letter. I've been asked a few times whether business is ready for January 1 and always reply that none I have spoken with are completely confident. So many individual changes within the one big change.
Worth noting that a Free Trade Agreement only sets out the framework for trade relations between countries. Implementation is another matter. Now I hear some such discussions have happened, but as per the deal as a whole, time running out. theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
Just for some Friday afternoon fun I started scanning through the original drafts of an FTA prepared by the EU and UK to get some sense of what might be in text, and what would need operational clarification. Rather a lot of the latter, sorry...
Read 11 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
4 Dec
Good to have a couple of real experts explaining outstanding issues in UK-EU talks are not, as the UK government would have it, just fish. Though EU Member States have to show they are fighting for their fishing fleets.
I don't think Fabian has been knowingly optimistic of prospects for a UK-EU deal for months, but he will reflect wider EU thinking.
It seems most likely that yesterday's setback was the UK thinking a concession would solve the whole Level Playing Field issue, and being surprised when it didn't. This appears to be a pattern. But doesn't mean it is unsolvable.
Read 7 tweets

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