Vaccine conspiracies are overtaking election disinformation, but we can & we must preempt this next wave of nonsense, new post- “COVID-19 Vaccine Conspiracies & the Next Wave of Disinformation” @FPRI fpri.org/fie/covid-19-v…
Most dangerous potential vaccine disinformation scenario near term. PizzaGate style acute mobilization or attack on a vaccine distribution point targeting health care workers, medical facilities. This can be anticipated & possibly disrupted if we prepare like we did election2020
Second less likely, but definitely harmful scenario would be vaccine disinfo inspired attack on supply lines for vaccines. Some unique vulnerabilities for deploying vaccines (cold temps, storage, scale, etc) will require different security than we'd normally consider
Long run bigger issue for vaccine conspiracies is resistance to vaccines even when they prove to be safe and effective. We need the vast majority to receive a vaccine, many say they won’t do it due to belief in conspiracies
Some good news. We just went through a year of disinfo waves, and we are slowly getting better at fighting it. Also think there are a couple reasons people will get COVID19 vaccine despite conspiracies. One....
We all at this point know someone who has died or become seriously ill from the virus, that’s different from other vaccines we receive. Flu, MMR etc. where we’ve not felt an acute shock. 2-......
People want to get back to normal, and we won’t be able to return to normal till some sort of herd immunity arrives. Question by late summer will quickly become, “do you want to stop wearing a mask, staying at homes, schools, Xmas/Thanksgiving 2021? Then take the damn vaccine!”
Third and last for now, corporate America will bring about vaccine compliance before governments will. By this time next year I expect workplaces will be mandating vaccines
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Reminder for those worried about calls for #CivilWar on social media. There’s never been a civil war fought where the average fighter was morbidly obese & struggled to walk more than a few hundred yards.
The worry with calls for #CivilWar should be increased risk of fringe domestic terrorism in 2021.
The more political leaders talk passively of #CivilWar, the more their followers will advocate for Civil War, and as a result, 1’s & 2’s will find greater justification for terrorist violence. The loud mouths lead the more silent but angry ...to targets.
Several aspects of the Proud Boys false incitement emails point to Iran - "FBI says Iran behind threatening emails sent to Florida Democrats" nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news… via @nbcnews
1 - was likely this was a foreign op as opposed to a domestic operation from the start, to employ stolen/hacked voter registration lists would lead to prosecution for a US domestic actor, 2 - Iran is both aggressive & sloppy, attempt things other states will not, and get caught
3 - cyber signatures for the webmail servers traced back to Saudi, an adversary of Iran, classic technique to tie up two enemies with one cyber move, Russia does this too, but, unlikely they'd move this way.
Several significant elements to this domestic terrorism plot pointing to why it’s much bigger deal than the one off guy plots “F.B.I. Says Michigan Anti-Government Group Plotted to Kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer” nytimes.com/2020/10/08/us/…
1- MI-Whitmer plot more than just 1, 2 people, dozen or more arrests so far, scale sizable and increasingly appears to be multi-state beyond Michigan
2- MI-Whitmer plot advanced far past “guy with bad thoughts, posts & some ideas”. See here a specific objective, defined time, deliberate recruitment, planning, reconnaissance, weapons testing ...way more advanced than most plots
Seems we’re going to do the plot line of every episode of 7 seasons of the West Wing as a reality show in 2020
I’m young enough to remember when President Bartlet wasn’t completely honest about his MS diagnosis & Stockard Channing totally covered for him.
I also remember how the Presidential line of succession works because John Goodman, the Speaker of the House, briefly became President when the 25th amendment was invoked (also how I learned about the 25th and then refreshed during Homeland Season 7)
Disinfo Disaster scenario “2. One or both candidates contract COVID-19
- Until the coronavirus is brought under control, we have a serious challenge ahead regarding the danger COVID-19 poses to 2020’s presidential candidates.” July 30, 2020
“As Election Day approaches, both candidates will be pressured to pursue more public appearances and in-person campaign events. President Trump largely refuses to wear a mask, and members of his inner circle have tested positive for the virus...” fpri.org/fie/disinforma…
“Every cough, sniff or misstep at a microphone, and at their ages they’ve both had many, could be exploited by their opponent and amplified from afar as a sign of COVID-19.”
This DHS report is accurate and correct “Russia is 'amplifying' claims of mail-in voter fraud, intel bulletin warns - ABC News” abcnews.go.com/Politics/russi…
If you want to see what Russia says about mail-in ballots, @FPRI@rjchernaskey has been tracking it, links to stories included. Make your own Intel assessment fpri.org/fie/mail-in-ba…