Thread with some pics and video from @c_shadowspaces and me while doing a month long count/estimate of those living outdoors (none that would give away secret locations - have some of those too). 👇
This is near where Grant Faulkner died in a fire in Scarborough (led to an inquiry). Someone had camped nearby recently and within a 1/2 kilometre there was a hidden structure replete with an extensive garden.
Fort York (one of about 8 there)
Walking down in the Don Valley on the night of the big wind storm November 15.
Trying (unsuccessfully for 2nd time) to find tents reported along the Humber River
One tent off to the right on Sanctuary's parking pad. We fluctuated between 1-4 on or near church grounds throughout this period.
East Beaches
Not far away ...
Deep in a (more) hidden spot, late night. Sound of generator powering the area.
(All the really great photos/videos in here are by @c_shadowspaces and his much superior camera. He may add others.)

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More from @djjohnso

13 Dec
With two more fires reported today in encampments, there have been seven moderately to super suspicious fires in the last seven days in Toronto homeless camps.

Thread:

👇🏻
1. Last Saturday night between 9-10pm a foam dome was lit on fire at HTO Park (Queens Quay and Spadina). Right by fire station. Residents 100% sure it was started purposefully. No one in it at time or injuries. Police attended, took statements, lied to Sun to say did not.
2. On Monday before midnight someone lit a tiny house in Moss Park on fire beginning with tarps on outside/top of structure. Quarrel before loud bang bang. White guy, scruffy beard left scene. Police and fire attended. Police told Sun it remained under investigation.
Read 11 tweets
8 Dec
I want to talk for several tweets about this slide from Gord Tanner @cityoftoronto at yesterday's hearing. And about @JohnTory's false assertion today that there are only about 400 people living outdoors in T.O. @dmrider @CBCLorenda @cathyacrowe @cllrainslie @shelleycarroll 1/
Let's start with the very most basic FACT (as Mary Anne Bedard kept saying yesterday, in a verbal tick repeated often by deputants to poke fun):

To say that there are 400+ tents in parks & transportation right of ways right now but only 400 people living outdoor is risible. 2/
For starters, assuming just 1, or less than 1 person per tent (or similar structure) doesn't work. We'll get to why in a moment. But that also then assumes no one else is homeless and sleeping w/o tent, on grates, in construction sites, doorways, parking garages, TTC cars etc. 3/
Read 23 tweets
22 Oct
The @CityofToronto is flatly lying, as it has for at least a decade, about shelter space being available for people who are homeless. Today, a naive and unjust judge not only let Toronto get away with those lies, but crapped all over some of Toronto's most vulnerable citizens. 1/
So, here's a little story that shows what those who are homeless and those who advocate for them go through trying to get Shelter beds.

"I had extended the stay at the rooming house near Spadina and Dundas for the woman who had reported a sexual assault on June 19, 2/
as I was concerned that there was no available bed for her in the shelter system. In the afternoon of June 25, I visited that woman at the rooming house near Spadina/Dundas. While I was there, I noticed a young homeless man (Z.R.) hanging around the outside of the building." 3/
Read 17 tweets
19 Oct
Is 2020 still competitive (RCP) or not really (538)?

2016
Actual Ntnl: Clinton +2.1
RCP Final: Clinton +3.2 (D+1.1)
538 Final: Clinton +3.9 (D+1.8)

2018
Actual House Ntnl: D+8.6%
RCP Final: D+7.3 (R+1.3)
538 Final (polls only): D+10.2 (D+1.6)

Avg Bias
RCP R+0.1%
538 D+1.7% Image
Look, let's be honest:

If Biden is up

4% in Arizona and Florida
6.5% in Pennsylvania
8%, on average, in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan

And within a whisker of Texas

Then 538 is actually being generous when it gives Trump a 12% chance of winning. Image
If, on the other hand:

Biden is up only:

1.5% in Florida
3% in Arizona
3.8% in Pennsylvania
5.2% in Nevada

And an average of 6.5% in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin

While:

Trump leads Texas by 4.4%

Uncertainty remains reasonably large: Image
Read 4 tweets
17 Feb
1/ Analyses of precinct data in NH suggest risk that fractional counting by machine may have moved results by 3-5% of gap between Sanders and Buttigieg. @jvgraz recently discussed 2016 suspicions per Stanford study (see also my work in CP + w/EJUSA and @LuluFriesdat led study).
2/ We cannot draw a conclusion of suspicion about movement from precincts of 349 or less to 350-1999 for Sanders v. Buttigieg. Comparing hand v. scanner counts? Sanders just did better in smallest townships. (Klobuchar diff. *is* suspicious per multivariate regression analysis.)
3/ I worked with an Ivy League trained prof. who uses quantitative and qualitative data in his research. We controlled for several factors like wealth.

Our data frame: easyupload.io/kwg3v4

Wealth, importantly, only explains about 10% of the variance by precinct size:
Read 5 tweets
21 Jan
#10at10 No. 48
2020 Dem Primary Rankings
Full Delegate Proj.➡️Super Tues:
wp.me/P7gBVo-yC

-Warren up 15 delgs., Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg down 7, 7, and 1 respectively
-Sanders now within 0.4% of Biden in polling v. Trump avg., closest in my tracking over a year Image
#10at10 No. 49
2020 Dem Primary Rankings
Full Delegate Proj.➡️Super Tues:
wp.me/P7gBVo-yC

-At 1.1 pt deficit, closest Sanders has been to Biden (also -1.1 Apr 1)
-Bloomberg steadily rising
-Deleg count hidden, updates tonight (IA NH NV SC), throughout week (Super Tues) Image
#10at10 No. 50
2020 Dem Primary Rankings
Full Delegate Proj.➡️Super Tues:
(Updating tonight)
wp.me/P7gBVo-yC

-Sanders takes the lead in polling, delegates, and overall rank for first time going back to Jan. 2019
-Full Delg. Projection later tonight (could move a few) Image
Read 28 tweets

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