2/n The problem is that all the ups and downs in these lines strongly suggest *narrative* — but for the most part, the data doesn't have anywhere near that fidelity.
Big turnarounds happen in pandemics, yes, but you won't know for sure you've had one until weeks later.
3/n Think of all the times we've heard about flattening, or a plateau, or a spike after some holiday.
You can see those moments clearly in the ups and downs of the fall wave.
At the same time: You can also draw a remarkably straight line through the same curve.
4/n It's not that that week by week data didn't matter, it's that the trend — broadly speaking — hadn't actually changed.
5/n Anyway, I'm saying all this because I'm *tempted* to think things have slowed a touch lately in Ontario, and yet when I squint at it, that's a very straight line upward since Sept., isn't it?
6/n I've shared this chart before, but it basically sums it up.
This is the same Ontario case curve, just smoothed over 14 days rather than 7.
How many times has this curve truly changed direction?
7/n To be 100% clear: A straight line chart of an inherently exponential phenomenon like an infectious disease does, in fact, show a gradual slowdown.
Steady exponential growth would curve upward.
What it doesn't show is any sudden turnaround.
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1/n Not long after I did the attached chart of cases by age, I realized I could use the Ontario database to predict how deadly each day's set of new cases might be, based on the age breakdown and their average death rates.
The labs first need to *have* samples to be able to test them, so the fact more tests were collected than tested yesterday does not yet suggest there's a "backlog" problem.
With big input numbers, it's normal for a large total of tests to be in the queue at the end of the day.
The question is whether the labs can handle this input after it comes in, so should watch to see if the completed number gets back up into the mid-to-high 40k range tomorrow.
As of 8 pm Wed., Ontario's regional public health units are reporting another 373 confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases, with 4 more deaths.
The 7-day avg. is 🔺 to 403 cases/day and 🔺 to 1.7 deaths/day.
First time the 7-day avg. has been north of 400 cases/day since May 26.
Accounting notes:
- Toronto reported 129 new cases but the unit's total rose by 99. In the past, this would suggest data cleaning scrubbed 30 cases, but I don't know yet if that's the case today. Regardless, my total for the day includes 129 from Toronto.
- The province's total for Toronto from the same reporting period was 102.
- The province also had 0 in Middlesex-London, but the unit reported 12.
- So: Add 30ish from Toronto and 12 from London to province's 335 from this morning, and it's much closer to what I'm seeing.