I see some well known people - including the 🇬🇧 Foreign Secretary and the BBC's Political Editor - are struggling a bit with their #Brexit terminology today
So here's a terminology guide that is as simple as possible.
1/10
DEAL means there is a piece of paper (or, to be precise, more like 600 pages) that both 🇬🇧 and 🇪🇺 agree and sign, and is OKed by the institutions on both sides, by 31st December.
Were this agreed it would be the basis for 🇬🇧-🇪🇺 relations medium term.
2/10
NO DEAL means there is no piece of paper agreed and signed by 🇬🇧 and 🇪🇺 by 31st December.
Unlike a DEAL, we do not know how long this NO DEAL (or perhaps better NO DEAL PERIOD) would last. Weeks? Months?
3/10
NO DEAL is not a permanent or even semi permanent state. It would most likely be followed by a deal of some sort, but how that deal (POST NO DEAL DEAL) would look some months from now may differ from *the* DEAL that could be agreed now.
4/10
A CANADA DEAL or a CANADA STYLE DEAL is just about acceptable shorthand for the DEAL that is currently on the table - i.e. it is roughly similar to the deal 🇪🇺 has with 🇨🇦.
5/10
An AUSTRALIA DEAL or an AUSTRALIA STYLE DEAL is a fallacy
🇬🇧 has no overarching agreement with 🇦🇺, neither does 🇪🇺. The term is used by some to make a NO DEAL sound palatable, but given it contains the word 'deal' but as there is no paper to sign it is not a deal.
*avoid*
6/10
SIDE DEAL or PARTIAL DEAL means one or more smaller, narrower agreements than the DEAL & that could be struck between 🇬🇧 & 🇪🇺, presumably to apply after 1st Jan (although theoretically before). Both 🇬🇧 and 🇪🇺 would have to agree to these, and 🇪🇺 has refused them until now.
7/10
CONTINGENCY MEASURES are limited, unilateral, time limited legislative proposals by 🇪🇺 to overcome short term disruption in a NO DEAL scenario. Some parts would only work if 🇬🇧 agreed to them - on a take-it-or-leave-it basis.
8/10
There is nothing to stop 🇬🇧 proposing its own CONTINGENCY MEASURES but this has not yet happened.
CONTINGENCY MEASURES (🇪🇺 ones, or theoretical 🇬🇧 ones) are not to be confused with SIDE DEAL or PARTIAL DEAL.
9/10
In short: these terms are not always as straightforward as we might like, but getting them right is important to understand what is going on.
And I'd not want anyone to *not* understand of course.
10/10
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There's something personally psychologically weird about this morning
I can - logically - see no way to a Deal by 31 December now
But at the back of my brain a kind of "what if?" keeps nagging at me
It's like what supporting a football team about to be relegated must be like.
You know a result in some other game has to end 17-0 for your team to be saved, and the team that needs to win 17-0 has a waterlogged pitch and its main striker injured...
... but until that result comes in you cannot really, completely and fully process what is happening
And also being good at explaining complex stuff means you know your limits, and know who to ask when you struggle.
Here follows a list of people who've helped me in the past couple of weeks. I don't agree with all of them, all the time, but you should follow *all* of them - because above all they have the right *attitude* to solving complex problems!
If it's *before*, there's the danger that both sides have too big a gap to bridge - and Johnson has to return to London outwitted by a Brussels bureaucrat
If it's *after*, the UK thinks it might have gained an advantage by running the clock down further, but with time already really short that's a very dangerous game
Wednesday (or Thursday morning) makes most logical sense - it would allow vdL and Johnson to seal a deal, and then the European Council Thursday afternoon can agree it
Friday afternoon (or Saturday) I suppose is an option as fallback
The theoretical option - and I presume the one Johnson is pushing for and hence why we do not know the schedule yet - is he's in Brussels when the European Council happens, and he can even talk direct to the Heads of State and Government there
The transport ministers from 🇩🇪🇦🇹🇫🇷🇨🇭, and the CEOs of the state-owned 🚅 operators in each (DB, ÖBB, SNCF, SBB), held a press conference about night trains today...
This slide summarises what they'd agreed
Don't get me wrong: night trains are *good*, and the trains on these routes will be ÖBB NightJet services, and ÖBB runs the best night trains there are in Europe.
I personally will be very happy to take these trains.
But so much for the good news.
Most of these routes have *already* been announced (Zürich to BCN, Rome, Amsterdam) - see presse.oebb.at/de/presseinfor…