1/ As 2020 is coming to a close, I wanted to share some of my favorite graphs / pictures I collected throughout the year.
2/ March was one of the fastest sell-offs in history.
3/ The world came to a stop.
4/ Treasury market depth plunged.
5/ Treasury volatility hit extremes.
6/ Stock/bond correlations broke down
7/ "Gallows humor" by yours truly
8/ Corporate bond ETFs ($LQD) fell 20% in 2 weeks while IG saw some of the largest outflows ever.
9/ Bond ETF prices meaningfully diverged from NAV.
10/ So much so that there might be some interesting optionality embedded in holding bond mutual funds?

(h/t @EconomPic)
11/ People mistook $ZOOM for $ZM.
12/ The SEC had something to say about it.
13/ Variance Swaps blew up.
14/ The intraday / overnight conundrum continues.
15/ The Fed unrolls the entire 2007-2009 playbook in just a few weeks.
16/ And they start buying bond ETFs.

(Okay, not technically, but whatever.)
17/ IG and HY issuance 🚀
18/ Factor correlations move to extremes.

(h/t @wjruss84)
19/ Factor vol starts getting extreme
20/ Momentum had a -16.4σ move

(Yes, yes, I know, fat tails, yada yada)
21/ The liquidity / VIX dynamic post Feb 2018

(h/t @FadingRallies)
22/ The "call option casino"
23/ Okay, folks, what did I miss? Add below! 👇
24/ Can’t believe I missed this one...
25/ HODLers rejoice!
26/ Can’t not mention $TSLA’s meteoric rise here!

(Equity issuance suggests Elon’s not one to look a gift horse in the mouth)

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More from @choffstein

13 Dec
1/ Some random thoughts on the reflexive impacts of commoditization of access in finance…

In other words, “what happens when we make something easy to invest in?"
2/ In 1991, Goldman Sachs launched the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI). By the early 2000s, commodity futures were an popular, emerging asset class for many financial institutions.
3/ Institutional investors were ravenous for exposure, and grew their exposure in different commodity index-related instruments from just $15b in 2003 to $200b by mid-2008.
Read 14 tweets
5 Nov
1/ Having lots of fun convos in the DM’s about positioning of systematic players (and how that positioning changes w.r.t. spot, realized volatility, and time).

I think an important equation to keep in mind is:

dL/dV = -T / V^2
2/ If we assume leverage (L) is simply equal to target volatility (T) divided by realized volatility (V) (i.e. L = T / V), then we find that the change in leverage w.r.t changes in volatility is equal to the equation above.
3/ What does this mean?

Since T is pretty much constant, it tells us that leverage changes (i.e. buying / selling pressure) will be due to changes in realized volatility (duh).
Read 9 tweets
3 Nov
How are systematic strategies affecting equities today?

As far as I can tell, many are dead pressure at the moment.

e.g. Here’s a dashboard I whipped up of S&P 500 allocation sensitivity in one popular multi-asset momentum index.

(Definitions 👇) Image
(Yes, I am bastardizing the greeks here)

Gamma - Change in weight per 1% move in spot price

Vanna - Change in weight per 1% move in realized vol

Charm - Change in weight per 1 day change in historical data window
DlambdaDvol - Change in portfolio leverage required to maintain constant volatility target per 1% change in realized volatility
Read 5 tweets
11 Sep
This is the most uncomfortable piece of research I’ve ever written.

I don’t believe everything in it with the same conviction.

But I think the evidence – circumstantial as it is – when taken together, paints a very interesting picture about the current market structure.
If you want to hear more intelligent people speak on some of these topics, I’d recommend:

@bennpeifert on OddLots (bloomberg.com/news/audio/202…)

@profplum99 on Grant Williams (podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…)
@ArtemisVol has some really thought-provoking stuff on reflexivity and liquidity (artemiscm.com/welcome#resear…)

I would also highly recommend this paper by Vineer Bhansali (longtailalpha.com/wp-content/upl…)
Read 5 tweets
17 Aug
1/ A quick thread on our new paper

Rebalance Timing Luck: The (Dumb) Luck of Smart Beta

Available at:
- epsilontheory.com/rebalance-timi…

- papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2/ A general audio recap is available at:

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cor…
3/ Okay, so what's the core problem we're trying to tackle here?

Lots of systematic equity strategies (such as "smart beta" ETFs) rebalance on a fixed schedule (e.g. every June and December).

Does the choice of "when" matter?
Read 14 tweets
30 Jul
1/ Flirting with Models (thinknewfound.com/podcast) Season 3 is officially over.

A deep thank you to my guests, all who listened, and @MathewPassy for his unbelievable editing.

I thought I'd do a quick thread on something I learned from each episode.
2/ Quantifying Conviction with @AQISinvest

Position size is not a great measure of a manager's conviction; we have to normalize against that manager's behavior incentives.

A small, off-style position put on late in the year could mean a lot.

blog.thinknewfound.com/podcast/s3e1-k…
3/ Evolving Long/Short Equity with @michaelbkrause

Look-ahead bias can be an effective means of measuring the upper limits of your portfolio construction process.

blog.thinknewfound.com/podcast/s3e2-m…
Read 15 tweets

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