How are systematic strategies affecting equities today?

As far as I can tell, many are dead pressure at the moment.

e.g. Here’s a dashboard I whipped up of S&P 500 allocation sensitivity in one popular multi-asset momentum index.

(Definitions 👇) Image
(Yes, I am bastardizing the greeks here)

Gamma - Change in weight per 1% move in spot price

Vanna - Change in weight per 1% move in realized vol

Charm - Change in weight per 1 day change in historical data window
DlambdaDvol - Change in portfolio leverage required to maintain constant volatility target per 1% change in realized volatility
Note the difference between FEB and OCT. There was so much equity exposure in FEB, changes in spot or realized volatility would lead to meaningful de-risking (not to mention just the burn from charm).

Not quite the same today.
I’m seeing a similar pattern across CTAs, Risk Parity, etc.

That isn’t to say markets can’t go down. Just that an exogenous shock won’t lead to a lot of systematic selling pressure, as far as I measure it.

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More from @choffstein

5 Nov
1/ Having lots of fun convos in the DM’s about positioning of systematic players (and how that positioning changes w.r.t. spot, realized volatility, and time).

I think an important equation to keep in mind is:

dL/dV = -T / V^2
2/ If we assume leverage (L) is simply equal to target volatility (T) divided by realized volatility (V) (i.e. L = T / V), then we find that the change in leverage w.r.t changes in volatility is equal to the equation above.
3/ What does this mean?

Since T is pretty much constant, it tells us that leverage changes (i.e. buying / selling pressure) will be due to changes in realized volatility (duh).
Read 9 tweets
11 Sep
This is the most uncomfortable piece of research I’ve ever written.

I don’t believe everything in it with the same conviction.

But I think the evidence – circumstantial as it is – when taken together, paints a very interesting picture about the current market structure.
If you want to hear more intelligent people speak on some of these topics, I’d recommend:

@bennpeifert on OddLots (bloomberg.com/news/audio/202…)

@profplum99 on Grant Williams (podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…)
@ArtemisVol has some really thought-provoking stuff on reflexivity and liquidity (artemiscm.com/welcome#resear…)

I would also highly recommend this paper by Vineer Bhansali (longtailalpha.com/wp-content/upl…)
Read 5 tweets
17 Aug
1/ A quick thread on our new paper

Rebalance Timing Luck: The (Dumb) Luck of Smart Beta

Available at:
- epsilontheory.com/rebalance-timi…

- papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2/ A general audio recap is available at:

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cor…
3/ Okay, so what's the core problem we're trying to tackle here?

Lots of systematic equity strategies (such as "smart beta" ETFs) rebalance on a fixed schedule (e.g. every June and December).

Does the choice of "when" matter?
Read 14 tweets
30 Jul
1/ Flirting with Models (thinknewfound.com/podcast) Season 3 is officially over.

A deep thank you to my guests, all who listened, and @MathewPassy for his unbelievable editing.

I thought I'd do a quick thread on something I learned from each episode.
2/ Quantifying Conviction with @AQISinvest

Position size is not a great measure of a manager's conviction; we have to normalize against that manager's behavior incentives.

A small, off-style position put on late in the year could mean a lot.

blog.thinknewfound.com/podcast/s3e1-k…
3/ Evolving Long/Short Equity with @michaelbkrause

Look-ahead bias can be an effective means of measuring the upper limits of your portfolio construction process.

blog.thinknewfound.com/podcast/s3e2-m…
Read 15 tweets
30 Jun
1/ A few random thoughts on the idea of a "stock picker's market"...

Below I plot two long/short value strategies. Both use a composite set of measures, rebalance monthly, and buy the top quintile / short the bottom quintile.

But one peaks in 2013 and the other 2017.
2/ The only difference? One is market-cap weighted and one is equal-weighted.

Now consider this graph that shows a long/short portfolio that is equal-weight the top 10 stocks by market cap and short the bottom 990 (R1K proxy universe).
3/ Not surprisingly, many of these "top 10" stocks find themselves in the bottom decile of value.

And when we market-cap weight our legs, we end up with significant short exposure to them.

Equal-weight still shorts them, but doesn't do so in an out-sized manner.
Read 15 tweets
26 Jun
1/ I feel like factor volatility has shot through the roof in 2020 and nobody is really talking much about it.

(I get it, there are more important things going on.)
2/ It isn’t unusual to see factor volatility jump in a crisis, but what is sort of weird about 2020 is that we’ve seen a bigger-than-usual jump in all the factors simultaneously.
3/ Let’s talk about June for a second.

Within a week, value was up 10% and momentum was -20%. A WEEK.

And look how almost completely mirrored these factors have become.
Read 10 tweets

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