This is the most uncomfortable piece of research I’ve ever written.

I don’t believe everything in it with the same conviction.

But I think the evidence – circumstantial as it is – when taken together, paints a very interesting picture about the current market structure.
If you want to hear more intelligent people speak on some of these topics, I’d recommend:

@bennpeifert on OddLots (bloomberg.com/news/audio/202…)

@profplum99 on Grant Williams (podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…)
@ArtemisVol has some really thought-provoking stuff on reflexivity and liquidity (artemiscm.com/welcome#resear…)

I would also highly recommend this paper by Vineer Bhansali (longtailalpha.com/wp-content/upl…)
@ArtemisVol The Rise of Carry is a really interesting book that came out this year that touches on many of the same topics, but from a different angle (amazon.com/Rise-Carry-Con…) is also a fun read that came out this year.
The authors of The Rise of Carry did a podcast with @HiddenForcesPod here: hiddenforces.io/podcasts/the-r…

(h/t @DanielAndrewMe)

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More from @choffstein

17 Aug
1/ A quick thread on our new paper

Rebalance Timing Luck: The (Dumb) Luck of Smart Beta

Available at:
- epsilontheory.com/rebalance-timi…

- papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2/ A general audio recap is available at:

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cor…
3/ Okay, so what's the core problem we're trying to tackle here?

Lots of systematic equity strategies (such as "smart beta" ETFs) rebalance on a fixed schedule (e.g. every June and December).

Does the choice of "when" matter?
Read 14 tweets
30 Jul
1/ Flirting with Models (thinknewfound.com/podcast) Season 3 is officially over.

A deep thank you to my guests, all who listened, and @MathewPassy for his unbelievable editing.

I thought I'd do a quick thread on something I learned from each episode.
2/ Quantifying Conviction with @AQISinvest

Position size is not a great measure of a manager's conviction; we have to normalize against that manager's behavior incentives.

A small, off-style position put on late in the year could mean a lot.

blog.thinknewfound.com/podcast/s3e1-k…
3/ Evolving Long/Short Equity with @michaelbkrause

Look-ahead bias can be an effective means of measuring the upper limits of your portfolio construction process.

blog.thinknewfound.com/podcast/s3e2-m…
Read 15 tweets
30 Jun
1/ A few random thoughts on the idea of a "stock picker's market"...

Below I plot two long/short value strategies. Both use a composite set of measures, rebalance monthly, and buy the top quintile / short the bottom quintile.

But one peaks in 2013 and the other 2017.
2/ The only difference? One is market-cap weighted and one is equal-weighted.

Now consider this graph that shows a long/short portfolio that is equal-weight the top 10 stocks by market cap and short the bottom 990 (R1K proxy universe).
3/ Not surprisingly, many of these "top 10" stocks find themselves in the bottom decile of value.

And when we market-cap weight our legs, we end up with significant short exposure to them.

Equal-weight still shorts them, but doesn't do so in an out-sized manner.
Read 15 tweets
26 Jun
1/ I feel like factor volatility has shot through the roof in 2020 and nobody is really talking much about it.

(I get it, there are more important things going on.)
2/ It isn’t unusual to see factor volatility jump in a crisis, but what is sort of weird about 2020 is that we’ve seen a bigger-than-usual jump in all the factors simultaneously.
3/ Let’s talk about June for a second.

Within a week, value was up 10% and momentum was -20%. A WEEK.

And look how almost completely mirrored these factors have become.
Read 10 tweets
12 Mar
1/ As markets continue their ugly streak, I thought I’d take a few minutes to take my CIO hat off and just share some thoughts about running a boutique asset management firm during times like this.
2/ For (most) asset management firms, revenue is generated as carry (i.e. the fee) on the assets they manage.
3/ From a revenue stability perspective, the things that matter are:

1. What’s your revenue-weighted asset allocation?
2. What’s your idiosyncratic risk?
Read 19 tweets
24 Dec 19
1/ So this week's research note (blog.thinknewfound.com/2019/12/timing…) was pretty brief, so I want to write a few more words about this graph, which was buried within.
2/ This graph shows rolling 1-year returns of a multi-manager portfolio that rebalances equally across different trend managers each month versus one that lets exposures drift (reset annually).
3/ We can see a concave payoff structure: when returns between managers are extreme (x-axis), rebalancing hurts. When returns between managers are similar, rebalancing helps.

Thus, we can think of rebalancing as selling insurance against the tail risks of an individual manager.
Read 15 tweets

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