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10 Dec, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Not a drill, not a game in which both sides suddenly surprise us, we have seen both sides digging in to their positions. Those in the EU can judge whether that's the right or wrong decision from their point of view, in the UK we should do similar.
In other words, repeated again for the slow, no point in the UK complaining about how awful the EU is. We left. Time to decide whether this awfulness means having nothing to do with them or not. And not blaming those who know about the EU for predicting exactly what has happened.
The absolute classic UK approach to the EU for the last four a half years. Say we don't want to complain. Also, IT'S NOT FAIR!
This was 2016 (as written by @xtophercook in his wonderful "Defeated by Brexit") regarding the absence of EU expertise in UK gov. I think it is also true now. Certainly anyone with decent experience of the EU would have known how they negotiate with third countries.
A superb example - the official quoted here should be nowhere near EU talks if they think the EU treats countries with which it negotiates trade deals better than it is the UK. thetimes.co.uk/edition/commen…
Interesting view of LPF negotiations, presumably closely sourced from Number 10. The proposed compromise is not a million miles short of what we think the EU's real proposal to be (the UK claim otherwise is highly dubious). Don't write off a deal just yet. thetimes.co.uk/edition/commen…

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
14 Dec
Going to have to disagree with my learned friend here. If anyone moved on level playing field it was the UK, on the principle of a ratchet, or tariffs for divergence which was still being denied midweek. Changing the way in this might be achieved (many options) is insignificant.
It is the same "I move in principle you move in detail" shift we saw with the Northern Ireland protocol last year, when no PM could accept a border between GB and NI suddenly did, just as recently no PM would accept tariffs for divergence and seems to have done.
So, are we at deal yet? No, and it remains far from certain, but better than the gloom of Saturday. I still think the PM wants his ideal where everyone is happy, still hopes if only he can speak to Macron and Merkel he could get it, still to decide.
Read 17 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
13 Dec
The framing of this big issue remaining in UK-EU talks is clearly important. We hear that the EU has dropped dynamic alignment or the ratchet but they were only partially formed devices to enforce the main issue, future proofing fair competition clauses.
If (a big if) the overnight movement was the UK in principle finally accepting fair competition clauses could be future proofed, then the challenge for the EU is proposing a form of words (the EU is demandeur so their job) acceptable to their stakeholders and the UK.
The UK might have accepted the principle of future proofed fair competition but reject, under their own domestic pressure, every potential mechanism. Or the EU might not get Member State or European Parliament support if mechanisms seem insufficiently strong or difficult to use.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
13 Dec
"Trade deals are not made to assert independence, they are to manage interdependence" - absolutely true, and actually a better description than the misleading 'free trade agreement'. Someone once suggested 'managed trade agreement' as more accurate.
Not analysing UK government minister statements today as to whether they give room for a deal. There's an obvious deal to be done on level playing field and if the UK side stops being so stubborn / scared of their party it is fine. It looks like we'll choose otherwise, we wait.
Adopt brace positions. Those persistently saying deal or no deal, prepare your victory speeches or concessions of defeat.

Unless they delay again...
Read 15 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
12 Dec
The UK is invited to join the queue of countries complaining about unfair EU negotiators.

No Brexit ultras don't tell me I'm a pro-EU shill. This was what Eurosceptics said five years ago. As a reason to leave. They just didn't think it could happen to us. Then it did.
For four and a half years trade experts said that nobody likes negotiating with the EU and we would have a hard time. No we were told, easiest deal ever etc, why aren't you celebrating? Now the same people say it is the EU being particularly nasty. Wrong then, wrong now.
There are plenty of people in the EU who think their negotiating strategy with third countries is harsh. But it isn't changing because we left. It might even get worse. We can whinge. Or dream or rejoining. But realistically all we can do is learn to negotiate the best we can.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
11 Dec
As promised, a little story. Of how the EU ask of the UK on the level playing field is indeed new, how that came about, and why we should have been able to deal with this a lot better. And how, indirectly, David Frost is one of the reasons. Beware, contains analysis... 1/
Let us go back 5 years to the height of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) discussions. As you may recall, by 2015 TTIP was about as popular in the EU as allegedly the EU is these days in the red wall. What, thought the EU and Member States, could be done? 2/
TTIP will be more popular, declared more than one insider, if we show there are tough labour and environment protections against undercutting by the nefarious and probably untrustworthy US. That, optimistically they said, will get NGOs on side. 3/
Read 17 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
10 Dec
Sovereignty one tweet version. If there's no deal and extra economic harm it wasn't because the EU didn't respect the UK, but because the UK chose not to pay the price asked for a trade deal. Which is the choice the government will make, on which they can be judged.
For the avoidance of doubt I make no comment on whether EU negotiating requests are reasonable or not. They often aren't, similarly the US or China. Comes with being trade superpowers. So what do we do if trade superpowers aren't reasonable? Deal or retreat?
Vent. Up to the EU of course, but are serious people really suggesting that it is unacceptable for the EU to move beyond 10 year old provisions for the level playing field agreed for a less ambitious deal with a further away country?
Read 6 tweets

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