Thread by @DavidHenigUK

As promised, a little story. Of how the EU ask of the UK on the level playing field is indeed new, how that came about, and why we should have been able to deal with this a lot better. And how, indirectly, David Frost is one of the reasons. Beware, contains analysis... 1/

Let us go back 5 years to the height of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) discussions. As you may recall, by 2015 TTIP was about as popular in the EU as allegedly the EU is these days in the red wall. What, thought the EU and Member States, could be done? 2/

TTIP will be more popular, declared more than one insider, if we show there are tough labour and environment protections against undercutting by the nefarious and probably untrustworthy US. That, optimistically they said, will get NGOs on side. 3/

But there was a problem with EU level playing field provisions in 2015. The unit of DG Trade responsible absolutely did not believe anything should be enforceable. Pages of loose commitments, fine. Add more! But apparently enforcement was best done through a good chat. 4/

Now such soft-touch EU enforcement of level playing fields was probably designed particularly for developing countries, where sanctions were seen as unfairly penalising struggling business and individuals for the actions of a terrible government. Not the US. 5/

To make it worse for the EU their level playing field conditions were so weak there was a real chance that they would breach US red lines. The US, under a bipartisan agreement, having agreed that minimum labour and environment conditions should be enforceable in their FTAs. 6/

Fortunately at least for this bit of the EU, TTIP talks ended in 2016 before the embarrassment of having weaker level playing field conditions than the US became widespread. But the traditional EU approach was clearly not sustainable. Rethink time. 7/

So from 2016 to 2019 there was a lot of discussion about stronger EU level playing field provisions. These were given added impetus by the long awaited conclusion in 2019 of EU-Mercosur trade talks, with great concerns over Amazon deforestation. 8/

EU political parties, particularly the Greens and Socialists & Democrats (Labour equivalent) started to demand much stronger level playing field provisions, and this was reflected in a Commission programme from 2020 that included a new Chief Trade Enforcement Officer. 9/

So who was the next country in line for the EU's new tough level playing field conditions? It just so happens that will be the UK. Perfect testbed, like the US a bit untrusted on the deregulation front. Only problem, the EU doesn't have a set text for this... 10/

Enter the UK. Saying, we want Canada text on level playing field. Tin eared doesn't even begin to cover it. The EU has just gone through a five year process to change position and the UK wants to ignore it. As a negotiating start, perhaps. As a realistic endpoint, no chance. 11/

But note, there was no EU text precedent. Hence the first EU level playing field proposal contained non regression and a ratchet, but fudged enforcement, by suggesting implausibly, the establishment of new domestic bodies. 12/

So you have a choice as the UK. Do you engage with the clear EU direction of travel, reckoning you can shape their not fully formed thoughts in an acceptable way? Or stick with a minimalist position and declare this a red line? Wll reader, I think we can guess the answer... 13/

But let us finish by going back in time to the start of the story, of the optimism of TTIP talks that would transform EU-US relations. The head of UK trade pushing hard for the agreement that would years later lead to UK-EU stalemate was of course David Frost... 14/

So yes the EU ask on level playing field is unprecedented. But it has been coming for some years. The UK should have been aware of the issue in March, including the lack of EU fully formed thoughts. Something went wrong. 15/

We don't know whether the EU kept changing their mind on how to implement Level Playing Field - probably. We don't know if the UK failed to take it seriously and stuck to an unrealistic position - probably. But a solution should be possible, and the UK spin unhelpful. 16/ end

PS add my take on the history of EU LPF to this superb short thread from @alanbeattie on what is happening now and you have as much of the story as anyone should need. Both sides have so far failed quite spectacularly on this issue.

https://twitter.com/alanbeattie/status/1337322304330719232