Thread/ 🇮🇱 🇲🇦 🇧🇭 🇦🇪 🇸🇩 The way people discuss the normalization deals with Israel ignores an elephant in the room: normalization should be normal, almost all other countries have relations, this should have happened decades ago
That the US 🇺🇸 appears to trade things to get countries to normalize does it reflect badly on the US. It found this transactional diplomacy to work, but it shouldn’t need to be this way, normalization is the basis.
I see all these odd tweets remarking on “Bahrain didn’t get anything”...but Bahrain did what was right, which normalization and coexistence, that’s a good thing. Lack of normalization didn’t pressure Israel to change. No countries change through isolation, it only helps hardliner
Would anyone suggest that countries should have no diplomatic relations with Iran just due to the regime? No. Only with Israel is their this weird assertion they it’s normal for countries not to have relations
I spent a few days in Dubai after the normalization and saw how normal it is, how what is inspiring is also natural, of course Israelis should be able to travel everywhere, why would they be punished just due to policies of their government? Image
The basic thing is diplomatic relations. Then building on that is another issue. That the US sought to find ways to get this done through transactional diplomacy is merely a commentary on how unnatural this lack of normal ties was
It’s a product of a 1950s mentality. This lack of normalization. It’s about being trapped in a past when extremism though one can simply nor recognize a country. That’s wrong. Israel is a thriving fascinating country, if it’s government policies are wrong sometimes, that’s normal
What is NOT NORMAL is lack of normalization...and it is good that countries are going to have connections to Israel. It’s 50 years too late. But better late than not.
I find it odd that many of those who would say “we must engage with Iran” or “diplomacy, not war”....tend to mock these normalization deals or even oppose them. Odd. Hypocritical.

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More from @sfrantzman

13 Dec
You can never explain how the same people who say "we must engage with Iran, diplomacy is better than conflict"...also say when it comes to new Israel peace deals "it's not real peace" and mock or deride the deals and normalization...umm what happened to your love of 'engagement'
There is a chorus out there that talked "peace" for years...but every time there is peace...they are either silent or make snide, snarky, smarmy, negative, critical comments...because it was a peace lobby that was anti-peace...profited off conflict too often; hypocrisy.
There is also a kind of Stockholm syndrome of people who got used to Israel not having relations...normalization is the obvious minimum...every country in the world tends to enjoy this basic aspect...it's seventy years late actually. Should have happened years ago.
Read 6 tweets
11 Dec
Israel is constantly searching for the new “center party” or “flavor of the month” in elections, going back to Kadima, Pensioners and Yesh Atid, and Blue and White, Livni and Zionist Camp, it’s like a political laundry going round and round. Nobody wins.
There is largely a myth that these parties will erode Netanyahu and lead to some magical realignment. But reality tells us that Netanyahu’s Likud remains around 30 seats, enough to block the centrists by corralling the right and religious. The math is always the same.
It’s the same voters also, who make up a huge swath from Kulanu to Livni to the various parties that come and go, these extra floating mandates (around 10-20) it’s the same undecided voters who move en mass each time but can’t get over the hurdle of Coalitoon politics math
Read 4 tweets
13 Nov
Whenever someone tells you that Turkey and Russia are somehow competing for influence or against each other...just say:

1. S-400s
2. Turksteam pipeline.

And then begin the conversation again with "Astana process"...

They are partitioning, cooperating...not in opposition.
Countries that compete don't buy weapons systems from one another, build pipelines rapidly and divide other countries like Syria, Libya, Nagorna-Karabkah. That's just not how competition works. For competition see Iran-Israel, US-China tensions, Pakistan-India, etc...
Now...does China buy US Patriot missiles? No.
Do the US and China build pipelines together? No.
Do they carve up countries with peacekeepers and deals? No.

Now do the same for Israel and Iran, Pakistan and India, etc, etc...

#think
Read 4 tweets
13 Nov
One of the interesting foreign policy discussions in the US is the sense that the US should stop dealing with the Middle East or that the Middle East is a kind of waste of time, and doesn’t matter “like it used to”...this is fatigue from conflicts but not good policy thought
Replies include claims that the region no longer matter due to US not needing oil or relying on energy needs in region. But the region is important for many reasons, because it links Europe, Asia and Africa, due to migration, extremism, non-governed spaces, conflicts, influence
Look at the fact that China, Russia and other countries think this region is important, the idea that the US will just neglect a part of the world where it has had huge military bases and influence over decades is strange...it's more about fatigue than a reading of history.
Read 10 tweets
12 Nov
After Israel created a "multi-dimensional" unit...now: The "Momentum" multi-year plan and the Victory operational concept, emphasize the need for force-design around offensive-led efforts....The Multi-Domain Strike Division is a significant opportunity."
"... to promote offensive capabilities as part of the maneuver across all arenas while combining air, ground, naval and cyber firepower."

Back in July: jpost.com/israel-news/id…
"The Division's goal is to serve as the focal headquarters for force design, development of knowledge and combat theory, training, exercises, focusing on multi-domain strike capabilities across all echelons and levels of the IDF, from headquarters to the front." #Israel
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov
Thread: Those who believe the destructive war against poor Armenia was about hurting Iran have bought into the narrative of Ankara entirely...there is zero evidence Iran was harmed by a war that basically harmed Armenians and Azeris...if anything Iran gained again.
The theory that all the minority groups in the Middle East have to be attacked by Ankara and its extremists and that somehow destroying Afrin...Armenia...Sinjar...hurts Iran is built on nonsense and gratuitous support for violence against innocent people.
Notice how the Ankara regime media never critiques Kataib Hezbollah, Hezbollah, Badr or Houthis...none of Iran’s real allies. We are constantly being lied to that Ankara “opposes Iran”...it doesn’t. It is allied with Iran and Russia.
Read 17 tweets

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