You give the Fed way too much power. They don't have that sort of omnipotence. If they did, they wouldn't let 2008 happen.
What they are doing with cheap money is sawing the seeds for an even bigger day of reckoning in the future. The free market will eventually overwhelm them.
Back in 2007, they had some level of interest rates to cut, and they had ways to go experimenting with other toolbox options, including:
• future guidance
• additional QE
• inflation targeting
Now, governments & CBs they have just about shot all the bullets they can shoot.
After 13 years of experimental monetary/fiscal policies — since 2007 — market participants are convinced central banks and governments exercise full control over business cycles, debt levels, and asset prices.
The view today is, they have your back. What could possibly go wrong?
So, asking whether the Fed will ever allow that kind of cycle again?
My view: it isn't up to the Fed to allow or not allow it.
Instead, an even worse crisis will surely happen because of what the Fed has created, albeit my opinion is in an extreme minority.
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Philosopher Karl Marx & his utopian views of a society where you do the work you can do and take for yourself all the things of necessity you require were pretty crazy in hindsight.
But nowhere as crazy as today's market participants, who believe prosperity can be maintained...
...and controlled by governments & central banks — which will never allow another major downturn or recession to occur on their watch.
If printing money out of thin air is such a great solution in the first place, why do we have taxes? Why do we aim at increasing productivity?
Why don't we just spend all of our time at the beach, or in the ski resorts?
Without any work needed and always waiting for a new batch of freshly printed warm & crisp dollar notes to stimulate our over-indebted economies and pay for our never-ending deficits?
One of the ways to remove the risk from the speculative activity of real estate & betting on CAP rate compression,
is to focus only on great deals truly priced below market or replacement cost, usually found from distressed sellers & to reduce/remove leverage from the equation.
Also worth mentioning is to focus on the value add as a key driver of appreciation, instead of hoping for market appreciation.
The forced appreciation component that our family has focused on is construction, which is an edge to increase profits without speculation.
Benjamin Graham said:
"A speculator gambles that a stock will go up in price because somebody else will pay even more for it."
The same is true in real estate or other assets.
Instead of hoping for a higher exit price, buy at a lower entry price and exit at the market.