Philosopher Karl Marx & his utopian views of a society where you do the work you can do and take for yourself all the things of necessity you require were pretty crazy in hindsight.

But nowhere as crazy as today's market participants, who believe prosperity can be maintained...
...and controlled by governments & central banks — which will never allow another major downturn or recession to occur on their watch.

If printing money out of thin air is such a great solution in the first place, why do we have taxes? Why do we aim at increasing productivity?
Why don't we just spend all of our time at the beach, or in the ski resorts?

Without any work needed and always waiting for a new batch of freshly printed warm & crisp dollar notes to stimulate our over-indebted economies and pay for our never-ending deficits?
I believe historians will look back on our period, the period which started post-2007, and wonder in amazement.

They will ask how come people of today's era actually believed it was ok to have negative interest rates & to print money forever thinking it will create prosperity?

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More from @TihoBrkan

13 Dec
1/ Sentiment & Valuations Thread! 👇🏽

Citi’s panic/euphoria model goes above 1.6X.

Last time that happened was in the year 2000.

Stock market fell 3 years in the row, halving in value. No positive returns for 12 years were registered. Image
2/ US broad stock market has registered 4X book value recently, which is the most overvalued reading since the Dot Com bubble.

This is very extreme.

However, many growth companies don't have tangible assets anymore, so it's worth looking at many indicators... Image
3/ ...especially price to sales which has recently registered a record reading above 2.7X.

Today's valuations are very similar to the late 1990s and early 2000s. Image
Read 18 tweets
11 Dec
You give the Fed way too much power. They don't have that sort of omnipotence. If they did, they wouldn't let 2008 happen.

What they are doing with cheap money is sawing the seeds for an even bigger day of reckoning in the future. The free market will eventually overwhelm them.
Back in 2007, they had some level of interest rates to cut, and they had ways to go experimenting with other toolbox options, including:

• future guidance
• additional QE
• inflation targeting

Now, governments & CBs they have just about shot all the bullets they can shoot.
After 13 years of experimental monetary/fiscal policies — since 2007 — market participants are convinced central banks and governments exercise full control over business cycles, debt levels, and asset prices.

The view today is, they have your back. What could possibly go wrong?
Read 4 tweets
6 Dec
1/ We believe a fantastic investment opportunity exists in the #London luxury real estate market today.

This is a thread for those interested in investing alongside our family business.

Here is what we see and why we like it. 👇
2/ Our family has worked in the single-family luxury market for over two decades but has never done anything in London (yet).

So naturally, as we watch London's prime center go through a 5-year correction of -20%,

We've started paying attention!
3/ Since most private investors aren't cross-broader allocators, they aren't focused on relative price changes between markets.

Before #Brexit, before UK's stamp duty hikes & before COVID-19,

London was the most expensive luxury market in the world on a $USD sq/ft pricing.
Read 13 tweets
22 Nov
Things that attract my attention:

• location independent business models

• tax optimisation strategies to keep majority of net profit

• very high profit margins (>50% or even towards 90%)

• minimal management effort and repeatable process
Additional notes:

• if I can’t have freedom, travel to foreign countries & enjoy time off — not doing it

• if I’ll be handing 30-50% of my profit to a governments which recklessly spends the money — not doing it

• if I have to work the classic 30+ hour week — not doing it
Early on in my journey I came to a realisation:

It wasn’t success, wealth or peer/industry recognition I was after.

It was freedom.

I was never interested in being only rich but permanently stuck somewhere, doing work I wouldn’t enjoy & not having the control of my time.
Read 4 tweets
22 Nov
One of the ways to remove the risk from the speculative activity of real estate & betting on CAP rate compression,

is to focus only on great deals truly priced below market or replacement cost, usually found from distressed sellers & to reduce/remove leverage from the equation.
Also worth mentioning is to focus on the value add as a key driver of appreciation, instead of hoping for market appreciation.

The forced appreciation component that our family has focused on is construction, which is an edge to increase profits without speculation.
Benjamin Graham said:

"A speculator gambles that a stock will go up in price because somebody else will pay even more for it."

The same is true in real estate or other assets.

Instead of hoping for a higher exit price, buy at a lower entry price and exit at the market.
Read 4 tweets
21 Nov
Coronavirus drives global debt to a new record high cnbc.com/2020/11/19/cor…
The IIF said global debt would break new records in the coming months to reach $277 trillion by the end of the year.
Among advanced nations, debt surged above 432% of GDP in the third quarter — a 50 percentage points increase from 2019.
Read 8 tweets

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