1) Premier François Legault contended on Thursday that the situation in the province’s long-term care centres has improved by 90% this fall compared with last spring. In this thread, I will fact-check this assertion. 
2) Legault asserted this twice Thursday during a news conference as he defended his government’s management of long-term care centres, known in French as CHSLDs. He attributed the decrease in #COVID19 deaths to date in the second wave to the hiring of 10,000 employees.
3) This is what Legault said: “So that’s why we saw the number of deaths reduced by 90% this fall compared to the spring, thanks to the improvements we made in the summer.” But did, in fact, the number of #COVID19 deaths in CHSLDs plummet by 90% this fall?
4) Although the first wave of #COVID19 cases subsided in early June, the actual wave of deaths ended a month later. As of July 3, the Institut nationale de santé publique du Québec noted there was a cumulative total of 3,606 #pandemic deaths in CHSLDs. See the chart below.
5) From July 4 to Aug. 31, 69 peopled died from #COVID19 in CHSLDs across Quebec. But since Sept. 1, the unofficial start of the second wave in Quebec, the INSPQ has counted another 651 deaths in CHSLDs, representing 15.05% of all fatalities in the first wave.
6) Thus, it would appear Legault’s assertion is incorrect, but it’s not far off, either. However, the first wave lasted nearly four and a half months. Quebec is currently three and a half months into the second wave, with the number of deaths only now accelerating in CHSLDs.
7) What’s more, the lives lost in CHSLDs do not tell the full story, because 961 Quebecers also died in seniors’ residences (RPAs) during the first wave. By comparison, 412 have died in RPAs since Sept. 1, a number that’s 42.87% of all such fatalities in the first wave.
8) Hiring orderlies for CHSLDs has improved care. But staff are still shuffling between these facilities, likely spreading the #coronavirus. And the situation in some CHSLDs outside Montreal has been horrific in the second wave, with a couple reporting more than 30 deaths each.
9) Even in Montreal, 15 people have died at the Maimonides CHSLD in a #COVID19 outbreak that was so bad authorities had to close an entire floor and transfer residents to hospitals. Thirteen other individuals have died in a critical outbreak at a CHSLD in Pierrefonds. See below.
10) In light of this context, and with the second wave far from over, it may have been premature for Legault to declare “the situation has improved by 90% (in CHSLDs) since last spring." End of thread. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
Addendum : My second Twitter thread on the current #COVID19 situation in Montreal and Quebec will come later tonight.
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