Tweet

Aaron Derfel

13 Dec, 9 tweets, 5 min read

1) Montreal posted the highest number of #COVID19 cases of any Canadian city on Saturday and its second highest single-day total since the start of the #pandemic. In this thread, I will show why the second wave has yet to peak amid rising hospitalizations.

2) The province recorded 16,176 active cases Saturday, up by 234 from the day before. On Dec. 1, Quebec registered 12,264 active #COVID19 infections. Quebec set a record in analyzed tests two days ago, 38,579, but overall, daily testing numbers have risen slightly since Dec. 1.

3) Montreal’s rolling seven-day average of #COVID19 cases climbed to 26.13 per 100,000 residents Saturday, above Harvard University’s 25-case threshold warranting a “circuit-breaker” lockdown. By comparison, Toronto recorded a seven-day average of 22.5 cases per 100,000.

4) At the neighborhood level, six health districts in Montreal counted more than 50 cases each on Saturday, as the chart below indicates. On Dec. 1, only one health district — in the centre of the city — counted more than 50 cases. See the chart below.

5) For most of the #pandemic, Montreal’s east-end observed the highest cumulative number of #COVID19 deaths by far, 1,041. But in the last 14 days, the West Island has reported the biggest surge in fatalities, most likely occurring in long-term care centres. See the chart below.

6) Quebec declared 40 #COVID19 fatalities Saturday, sadly, the highest in the country, raising the province’s death toll to 7,475. Montreal claimed seven of those deaths. Please take a look at the chart below, showing no signs that this second fatal wave has peaked.

7) The Quebec Health Ministry did not release data on outbreaks Saturday. On Friday, however, the government reported the biggest single-day increase in outbreaks, 56. One of them was at the superhospital of the Centre hospitalier de l’université de Montréal, with one death.

8) Another trend is emergency-room overcrowding. The trend shows an increase in the past seven days in Montreal. Most emergency admissions are not #COVID19-related but ERs are noting more walk-in patients with the #pandemic illness and more staff getting infected.

9) All these trends add up to a second wave that has yet to peak. Quebec Premier François Legault said Friday he would wait over the weekend before deciding to announce a more intensive lockdown. Saturday’s numbers all but confirm there will be one. End of thread. Stay safe.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

13 Dec

1) The second wave is now accelerating in Montreal at a much faster rate than in most regions across Quebec as the city posted a record 748 #COVID19 cases. Outbreaks are also surging so fast that authorities can’t even pinpoint some of them.

2) Although #COVID19 incidence rose noticeably since last week in the Chaudière-Appalaches and Capitale-Nationale, Montreal's resurgence has been the most dramatic. The city's seven-day rolling average soared Sunday to 27.76 cases per 100,000, higher than those two other regions.

3) It’s worth noting that since Friday Montreal crossed the threshold set by public health experts at Harvard University to require stay-at-home orders. It’s also worth recalling that 75 Quebec experts urged the government since Monday to impose a “circuit-breaker” lockdown.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

12 Dec

1) Quebec set two more grim records Friday during the #pandemic's second wave: a single-day increase of 56 #COVID19 outbreaks (most of them in schools) and 53 more deaths. In this thread, I will ask why the government needs more time to decide on a "circuit-breaker" lockdown.

2) The province is now gripped by no fewer than 1,338 #COVID19 clusters in a wide range of settings. Nine more occurred in CHSLDs Friday, two more in daycares, 22 more in schools and 20 more in the workplace. See the chart below.

3) Hospitalizations for the #pandemic illness rose by 23 to 871. Intensive care stays for #COVID19 climbed by 10 to 123. Remember, these hospitalizations are occurring amid a mass shortage of nurses and other medical professionals and a ramp down in elective surgeries.

Read 11 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

12 Dec

1) Premier François Legault contended on Thursday that the situation in the province’s long-term care centres has improved by 90% this fall compared with last spring. In this thread, I will fact-check this assertion.

2) Legault asserted this twice Thursday during a news conference as he defended his government’s management of long-term care centres, known in French as CHSLDs. He attributed the decrease in #COVID19 deaths to date in the second wave to the hiring of 10,000 employees.

3) This is what Legault said: “So that’s why we saw the number of deaths reduced by 90% this fall compared to the spring, thanks to the improvements we made in the summer.” But did, in fact, the number of #COVID19 deaths in CHSLDs plummet by 90% this fall?

Read 11 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

11 Dec

1) Montreal posted a 7% #COVID19 testing positivity rate on Thursday, 2.1% higher than New York City’s rate. Montreal also reported a record 648 cases, 90 more than Toronto. In this thread, I will focus on the rapidly deteriorating situation in the metropolis.

2) Dr. Mylène Drouin, head of Montreal’s public health department, noted the #coronavirus's reproduction rate is 1.37, signalling that the incidence of #COVID19 will rise in the coming days. She also finally acknowledged school-aged children are driving transmission of the virus.

3) But it may be what Drouin didn’t say that’s more alarming: The city’s seven-day-rolling average of #COVID19 cases reached 25.56 per 100,000 residents, the threshold Harvard University experts have recommended as warranting a general lockdown in the #pandemic.

Read 11 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

10 Dec

1) Quebec on Wednesday declared the sharpest daily increase in #COVID19 outbreaks in weeks, 31, with most of the new clusters arising in schools. In this thread, I will focus on transmission of the #coronavirus among teenagers and children in the province.

2) Of the 31 new #COVID19 outbreaks Wednesday, Quebec reported 12 in schools to 341, nine in daycares to 81, nine in health-care institutions to 306 and three in the workplace to 474. If you lump schools in with daycares, the total is 21 in a sector of mostly children and teens.

3) Dr. Horacio Arruda, Quebec’s chief public health officer, acknowledged the increase in #COVID19 transmission in a National Assembly hearing Wednesday. At present, there are 3,320 active cases among students and 918 among school staff, the highest to date in the #pandemic.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

9 Dec

1) In just a week’s time, 61 more outbreaks have flared up all over Montreal, as the comparison chart below shows dramatically. In this thread, I will examine this surge in #COVID19 clusters across the metropolis, yet another sign the second wave is intensifying.

2) As you can glimpse from the chart, #COVID19 outbreaks in daycares and schools have sprouted up in Saint-Léonard and Longue-Pointe (circled in red) in the east end of Montreal. Further east, in Anjou and Montreal East, there are lots of workplace outbreaks.

3) On the West Island, major #COVID19 outbreaks have erupted in health-care institutions. There have also been some big workplace clusters in Saint-Laurent's industrial park, circled in red. This graphic one-week comparison illustrates this rapid proliferation in outbreaks.

Read 11 tweets

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!