Around half the US population says that they are worried to be killed by terrorists.

The annual probability for an American to die in a terrorist attack during this period was 0.000051%

[ourworldindata.org/terrorism]
The countermeasures against terrorism – including the ‘war on terror’ – were extreme:
It cost trillions of dollars, killed tens of thousand of people, made millions to refugees, reduced civil liberties, legitimized intrusions into privacy.

And it failed entirely to reduce fear.
This looks unfortunately like a huge success for the terrorists.

As Scott Atran says “Perhaps never in the history of human conflict have so few people with so few actual means and capabilities frightened so many.”

[harpercollins.com/products/talki…]
As to the risk of dying from terrorism, Americans were extremely unlikely to die from terrorism before the war on terror, since then the share who died from terrorism has slightly increased, but it is still extremely rare.

[data (incl. for all countries) ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-…]
In 2016 Americans were asked whether they agreed with the statement that “ISIS is a serious threat to the existence or survival of the United States”.

25% agreed somewhat and an additional 52% agreed strongly.

In total 77% agreed with this statement.

[jstor.org/stable/resrep2…]
It’s always fair to be skeptical to survey results.

But on the other hand, we have to have an explanation for how it’s possible that the US population is willing to support the extremely costly and intrusive counterterrorism measures.

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More from @MaxCRoser

1 Dec
Just published my new @OurWorldInData post:

• Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?
→ And what can we do to use this global opportunity for green growth?

ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewabl…
Today fossil fuels – coal, oil, and gas – account for 79% of the world’s energy production.

But as this chart shows they have very large negative side effects.
Why is the world relying on power from fossil fuels if they cause so many deaths and such large greenhouse gas emissions? 

Because in the past they were *far cheaper* than other sources of energy.
Read 27 tweets
27 Nov
The European CDC will soon be switching to weekly data and I see several people concerned that this would create problems for Our World in Data and those who rely on data that they obtain via us.

This is not the case. We are well prepared.

Our data manager @redouad summarizes: Image
What the ECDC was pulling off in the last months was really phenomenal.

Very early in the pandemic – when alternative data sources were often extremely bad – the colleagues there woke up at 4 o'clock every morning to bring together reliable data from countries around the world.
We would definitely prefer if the ECDC would continue doing this work, but I very much understand that it needs to come to an end. And it can because there are good alternatives for case and death data available.
Read 5 tweets
14 Nov
Austria has now the highest rate of confirmed cases in the world. And the rate is still increasing.

Testing is very poor (the positive-rate is 22%) so that the true number of cases is much higher.

Austria now decided to implement a stricter lockdown: orf.at/#/stories/3189…
Austria has the highest rate of all countries with a population over a million people.

Andorra currently has a rate of over 1000 per million, but a small place with 76,000 people has obviously very volatile case rates.

Source with data for all countries ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
This curve shows the number of deaths in Austria.

The average over the last week were 40 deaths per day.

[Here is the data: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…]
Read 4 tweets
12 Nov
How expensive is it to limit global warming to less than 2°C?

The IPCC reports that the median cost to limit warming to less than 2°C corresponds to an annualized reduction of economic growth by 0.06%, relative to a baseline annual growth of 1.6-3%

ipcc.ch/site/assets/up…
If the world economy would grow 1.6% the world economy in 100 years would be 1.016^100=489% the size of today’s economy.

With measures in place to limit warming to 2C, growth would be 0.06% smaller – i.e. 1.54%.
The world economy would then ‘only' be 461% of the size of today.
In case the world economy would grow 3% per year the world economy in 100 years would be 1.03^100=1922% the size of today’s economy.

With measures to limit warming to 2C, growth would be 0.06% smaller – i.e. 2.94%.

The economy would then ‘only' be 1813% the size of today.
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov
Predictions of the herd immunity theorists were wrong, @tylercowen rightly points out

marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
If a country had actually achieved herd immunity you would find it in the bottom right corner of this chart.
The country would have a high cumulative case rate and a low current case rate.

[→ interactive chart ourworldindata.org/grapher/immuni…] Image
Several people are asking, where is Sweden? It is in the top right corner.

Sweden is among those countries with the highest case rate up to now.
And Sweden is among those countries with the highest case rate right now. Image
Read 4 tweets
1 Nov
1/ If we want to avoid situations in this pandemic in which we have to make the decision between more people dying or lockdown, we should increase testing.

It needs to be very easy for people to find out whether they are infectious or not.
2/ The number of tests is not the relevant statistic – a large outbreak needs more tests.


How many tests are needed depends on how many people are infected.

That’s the ratio of cases to tests: the *positive rate of tests* is telling us whether a country does enough tests.
3/ If a country tests enough, the positive rate is low. The country does many tests for each case they find.

You want to be in a situation where it's easy for people to find out whether they are infectious.
Whether you achieved that is visible in a low positive rate.
Read 15 tweets

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