Thread by @AndrewNoymer

Remember this 👇🏻 chart?

I received request for a breakdown by age groups.

I forget who it was; sorry.

Well, ask and ye shall (sometimes) receive.

*THREAD*: All-cause mortality, weeks 1 thru 35 (early Sept). 2015–20, BY AGE, w/trend-line and 95% prediction interval.

https://twitter.com/AndrewNoymer/status/1336874087734337538

Here is ages 0–24 (L) and 25–44 (R).

Deaths and 95% prediction interval. Input data from @NCHStats.

Here is ages 45–64 (L) and 65–74 (R).

Deaths and 95% prediction interval. Input data from @NCHStats.

Here is ages 75–84 (L) and ≥85 (R).

Deaths and 95% prediction interval. Input data from @NCHStats.

In summary:

USA all-cause mortality, weeks 1–35, in 2020, is elevated above the upper bound of the prediction interval based on the trend, 2015–19, *EXCEPT* ages 0–24.

Young people are not dying in unusual numbers.

Above 25, it's a different story.