Large blue circles below are samples that carry S:N501Y, but unlike the new variant in England, do not have the 69/70 deletion (that's in the green ones). These samples are primarily from Wales. @CovidGenomicsUK may have more information here!

21/N Image
Zooming in on the tree a bit, a small cluster in yellow carries a different mutation at the same position: S:N501T.

These are relatively recent samples, mostly from the North/North Eastern USA & eastern Canada (yellow on map).

22/N Image
Important to remember: these clusters I highlight above are separate from the 'new' UK one. However, they can give us information about mutations at the S:N501 position!

And they highlight the importance of sequence sharing: the only way to see these connections! 🤝

23/N
I'll try to update the S:N501 build with the latest sequences later today or tomorrow. I'll post again here when I do.

24/N
The latest data available from @CovidGenomicsUK (uploaded to GISAID yesterday) have been incorporated into our S:N501Y build. This added about 50 sequences to the 'new UK variant' (501Y + 69/70 del - green, at top).

25/N

nextstrain.org/groups/neherla… Image
On the variant monitoring site, you can see the proportion of sequences from the UK that come from each tracked variant. S:N501 are in hot pink.

26/N

github.com/emmahodcroft/c… Image
Some have asked whether the S:N501Y + 69/70 del (the 'new variant') is found in other places in the UK. We can look at this by colouring & plotting the map by 'division'

It seems to be mostly in England - also Scotland & Wales (not N Ireland)

27/N

nextstrain.org/groups/neherla… Image

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More from @firefoxx66

17 Dec
Two new variants are now up on the #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 Mutations of Interest site! 🎉

Added
- Spike 69 deletion (S:H69-)
- Spike V1122L (S:V1122L) - primarily circulating in Sweden.

(More detail on each on the site coming soon - but thread below!)

1/9

github.com/emmahodcroft/c… ImageImage
S:H69- is of particular interest, as it's part of a double-deletion (also position 70) that's appeared at least 3 times independently in conjunction with receptor binding domain (RBD) mutations: N501Y, N439K, & Y453F.

2/9

nextstrain.org/groups/neherla… Image
Below, the yellow is N439K, the orange is Y453F associated with Denmark (we see Y453F mutation multiple times) & the red is N501Y (again, we see N501Y mutation multiple times). Each of these RBD mutations also exists without the 69/70 deletion.

3/9

nextstrain.org/groups/neherla… Image
Read 10 tweets
15 Dec
There are many, many #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 variants out there! A few have caught the attention of scientists in Europe - we're trying to monitor them!

I'll be maintaining updated information here:
github.com/emmahodcroft/c…

#newvariant

1/7
This site includes a bit about what we know about specific mutations/clusters, including counts of sequences, some graphs, and links to dedicated @nextstrain runs (maintained by @richardneher Lab & myself) focused on each mutation

2/7
You can also check out graphs of the prevalence of the clusters in various countries:

3/7

github.com/emmahodcroft/c…
Read 7 tweets
14 Dec
As far as I know, the #SARSCoV2 variant identified by Hancock today is defined by a spike mutation at position 501 N->Y & a double-deletion at positions 69/70.

You can see it in orange in the dedicated Neher Lab S:N501 @nextstrain build below
nextstrain.org/groups/neherla…

1/N
I do not have more information about why scientists in the UK believe this variant may have increased transmission.
However, it does appear the proportion of UK sequences containing S:N501 mutations has increased recently (sorry, hard to see)

github.com/emmahodcroft/c…

2/N
This build is from last week (I'll try to update soon), but from this information, it seems like this particular variant has so far only been detected in the UK and Denmark. However, we may simply not have samples from other countries.

nextstrain.org/groups/neherla…

3/N
Read 19 tweets
14 Dec
1/ "The release of the scientists' views caused a furore. Until then, it had not been known how strongly the government's scientific advisors has lobbied for a lockdown in September. The next day Labour backed the scientists & called for a shutdown."

thetimes.co.uk/article/48-hou…
2/ It's a shame this article is behind a paywall, as it highlights critical moments in political #SARSCoV2 decision-making in the UK, & the impact of the false dichotomy that one can either save the economy or lives - rather than that reducing cases does both.
3/ As we've seen time & again in this pandemic, prioritizing actions based on the economy instead of impact on transmission has a tendency to come back to bite: 'back to normal' "now" is so often paid for with hospitalizations, deaths, & more severe restrictions later.
Read 13 tweets
3 Dec
*Very* surprised to hear this from @ECDC_EU & @EASA this morning. Our work on #SARSCoV2 20A.EU1 shows this variant spread incredibly effectively across Europe due to travel & now accounts for significant proportion of seqs circulating in many countries.

euronews.com/2020/12/03/cov…
While the variant initially spread from Spain, phylogenetic data shows that it also transmitted onward from secondary European countries.

Though we haven't studied other variants in as much detail, I have no doubt we'll find similar stories of travel-associated introductions.
Our work suggests that indeed, 'honour-based' quarantine alone may not be the ideal policy. But we suggest this because it doesn't seem to have worked as well in practice as one might have hoped - not because travellers posed no risk of introducing #SARSCoV2 (to the contrary).
Read 6 tweets
27 Nov
It's been a tough season for #ski resorts, but:
- Ski lifts & resort restaurants pose real #SARSCov2 transmission risks (Ischgl in spring)
- Attracting travel from across Europe could undo hard work getting cases down/stable (as we saw in summer)

1/4

nzz.ch/wirtschaft/eu-…
This summer, holiday travel spread #COVID19 cases across Europe easily. These 'sparks' were blown up to flames when the weather got colder.

The combination of lots of travel & ski resorts while cases are still too high across Europe is a risky one.



2/4
As many countries do not have to quarantine on arriving in Switzerland, we could be an attractive #Skiferien destination. Economically I see how that's tempting, but the longer term impact of rising cases & possibly more restrictions may cancel out the benefit.

3/4
Read 4 tweets

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