Large blue circles below are samples that carry S:N501Y, but unlike the new variant in England, do not have the 69/70 deletion (that's in the green ones). These samples are primarily from Wales. @CovidGenomicsUK may have more information here!
21/N
Zooming in on the tree a bit, a small cluster in yellow carries a different mutation at the same position: S:N501T.
These are relatively recent samples, mostly from the North/North Eastern USA & eastern Canada (yellow on map).
22/N
Important to remember: these clusters I highlight above are separate from the 'new' UK one. However, they can give us information about mutations at the S:N501 position!
And they highlight the importance of sequence sharing: the only way to see these connections! 🤝
23/N
I'll try to update the S:N501 build with the latest sequences later today or tomorrow. I'll post again here when I do.
24/N
The latest data available from @CovidGenomicsUK (uploaded to GISAID yesterday) have been incorporated into our S:N501Y build. This added about 50 sequences to the 'new UK variant' (501Y + 69/70 del - green, at top).
Some have asked whether the S:N501Y + 69/70 del (the 'new variant') is found in other places in the UK. We can look at this by colouring & plotting the map by 'division'
It seems to be mostly in England - also Scotland & Wales (not N Ireland)
S:H69- is of particular interest, as it's part of a double-deletion (also position 70) that's appeared at least 3 times independently in conjunction with receptor binding domain (RBD) mutations: N501Y, N439K, & Y453F.
Below, the yellow is N439K, the orange is Y453F associated with Denmark (we see Y453F mutation multiple times) & the red is N501Y (again, we see N501Y mutation multiple times). Each of these RBD mutations also exists without the 69/70 deletion.
This site includes a bit about what we know about specific mutations/clusters, including counts of sequences, some graphs, and links to dedicated @nextstrain runs (maintained by @richardneher Lab & myself) focused on each mutation
2/7
You can also check out graphs of the prevalence of the clusters in various countries:
As far as I know, the #SARSCoV2 variant identified by Hancock today is defined by a spike mutation at position 501 N->Y & a double-deletion at positions 69/70.
I do not have more information about why scientists in the UK believe this variant may have increased transmission.
However, it does appear the proportion of UK sequences containing S:N501 mutations has increased recently (sorry, hard to see)
This build is from last week (I'll try to update soon), but from this information, it seems like this particular variant has so far only been detected in the UK and Denmark. However, we may simply not have samples from other countries.
1/ "The release of the scientists' views caused a furore. Until then, it had not been known how strongly the government's scientific advisors has lobbied for a lockdown in September. The next day Labour backed the scientists & called for a shutdown."
2/ It's a shame this article is behind a paywall, as it highlights critical moments in political #SARSCoV2 decision-making in the UK, & the impact of the false dichotomy that one can either save the economy or lives - rather than that reducing cases does both.
3/ As we've seen time & again in this pandemic, prioritizing actions based on the economy instead of impact on transmission has a tendency to come back to bite: 'back to normal' "now" is so often paid for with hospitalizations, deaths, & more severe restrictions later.
*Very* surprised to hear this from @ECDC_EU & @EASA this morning. Our work on #SARSCoV2 20A.EU1 shows this variant spread incredibly effectively across Europe due to travel & now accounts for significant proportion of seqs circulating in many countries.
While the variant initially spread from Spain, phylogenetic data shows that it also transmitted onward from secondary European countries.
Though we haven't studied other variants in as much detail, I have no doubt we'll find similar stories of travel-associated introductions.
Our work suggests that indeed, 'honour-based' quarantine alone may not be the ideal policy. But we suggest this because it doesn't seem to have worked as well in practice as one might have hoped - not because travellers posed no risk of introducing #SARSCoV2 (to the contrary).
It's been a tough season for #ski resorts, but:
- Ski lifts & resort restaurants pose real #SARSCov2 transmission risks (Ischgl in spring)
- Attracting travel from across Europe could undo hard work getting cases down/stable (as we saw in summer)
As many countries do not have to quarantine on arriving in Switzerland, we could be an attractive #Skiferien destination. Economically I see how that's tempting, but the longer term impact of rising cases & possibly more restrictions may cancel out the benefit.
3/4