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Dr Emma Hodcroft Profile picture
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27 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
It's been a tough season for #ski resorts, but:
- Ski lifts & resort restaurants pose real #SARSCov2 transmission risks (Ischgl in spring)
- Attracting travel from across Europe could undo hard work getting cases down/stable (as we saw in summer)

1/4
nzz.ch/wirtschaft/eu-…
This summer, holiday travel spread #COVID19 cases across Europe easily. These 'sparks' were blown up to flames when the weather got colder.

The combination of lots of travel & ski resorts while cases are still too high across Europe is a risky one.



2/4
As many countries do not have to quarantine on arriving in Switzerland, we could be an attractive #Skiferien destination. Economically I see how that's tempting, but the longer term impact of rising cases & possibly more restrictions may cancel out the benefit.

3/4
We can make skiing safer by enforcing distance & masks - most importantly by *reducing density* & *ventilating* to reduce aerosol transmission risk.

Reduced #'s may conflict with the economic worries of resorts: we need to acknowledge these problems to find safe solutions.

4/4

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More from @firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft Profile picture
20 Nov
Gentle reminder that in Switzerland we are still feeling our way in the dark: with a #SARSCoV2 test positivity this high, the # of cases we report is largely linked to the # of tests we do.
While there are other signs cases are going down, we have a poor grasp on how much.

1/5
You can see this in this great cantonal graph by @gust_avius.
While tests & cases will always be linked somewhat, it's a bad sign when every jitter in testing is reflected perfectly in cases. It means we can't see exactly how case # are changing.

2/5
It's an even worse sign for places like Basel-Stadt, Schaffhausen, & Zug, where a decline in tests hasn't seen a same-size decrease in cases - in some cantons cases have even risen or plateaued despite the decrease in tests.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Dr Emma Hodcroft Profile picture
20 Nov
The new #SARSCoV2 variant we identified recently, 20A.EU1, has jumped to New Zealand a few times (& been caught in quarantine) - but this interesting preprint shows how it seems to have transmitted in-flight, from individuals originating in Switzerland:
research.esr.cri.nz/articles/prepr…
Just for the avoidance of all doubt (I know I've been covering a lot of stuff lately!) this isn't linked to mink/Denmark, but the variant that's currently most prevalent in Europe, spread through summer travel. You can read more about it here:
This preprint was made possible by a long list of great people - unfortunately I do not know twitter handles for them all - but it was led by Tara Swadi & Jemma Geoghegan & involved @hamesjadfield @alexeidrummond @edwardcholmes & @Joepdl
Read 4 tweets
Dr Emma Hodcroft Profile picture
4 Nov
Recently reported #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 '#mink mutation' in #Denmark is getting a lot of attention right now, but officially we know almost nothing about the variants/mutations in question.
From an SSI report from Sept, here is a little info.

ssi.dk/-/media/arkiv/…

1/21
*Very important caveat* here that I'm working with very limited information, but trying to make some sense of something that's getting a lot of attention, with the little info I can find. However, this should be taken as a tweet thread, not a preprint or anything similar.

2/21
On page 8, the document describes 2 variants, defined by mutations A22920T & a 2 amino-acid deletion from 21766-21771. Both are changes in the Spike protein.

3/21 Image
Read 58 tweets
Dr Emma Hodcroft Profile picture
4 Nov
1/ Very important to keep in mind that we've essentially reached #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 testing capacity in #Switzerland. Tests have plateaued but positivity is still >20%.

This makes it *very difficult* to read anything into the case numbers. I would urge caution with all analyses.
2/ There has been talk about hoping we can see signs of measures working by end of this week.

But, many cantons are restricting tests, lines are very long in places, & overall Switzerland can't really test more.

This makes it difficult to see whether restrictions are working.
3/ In the analogy where #SARSCoV2 testing is 'switching on the light' to fully understand the scope of the pandemic, #Switzerland has walked to the edge of where our lightbulb can illuminate.

At the cusp of darkness it's hard to see. Let's not make a leap of faith. #TestTestTest
Read 4 tweets
Dr Emma Hodcroft Profile picture
3 Nov
Looking back as we face a daunting #COVID19 winter: where did it all go wrong?

- We acted like we had an endless summer: didn't scale up #TestandTrace or plan ahead
- When cases rose, we hesitated. Priority on economy & freedom rather than lives means we're losing all three

1/6
We live in a world where a lot of things - politics & the economy in particular - are swayed by feelings & confidence. Politicians are used to being able to 'say things until they're true'.

Sadly, this doesn't work for viruses. Most leaders have not adjusted accordingly.

2/6
A lot of breath has been wasted on rhetoric:
'#COVID19 cases WILL come down'
'The economy WILL recover'
'Schools WILL stay open'

#SARSCoV2 cares little for words. Communication & messaging is important, but it is only /action/ that saves lives & livelihoods.

3/6
Read 5 tweets
Dr Emma Hodcroft Profile picture
29 Oct
Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants.

In our latest preprint, we describe a novel #SARSCoV2 variant that has spread across Europe this summer & what it can tell us.

Read it here: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

1/16
This work was a fantastic joint effort with @MoiraZuber @SarahNadeau19 @TanjaStadler_CH & @richardneher in Switzerland & brilliant collaboration with @icoes & @fgonzalezf from SeqCOVID-Spain consortium.

Huge effort in getting this out quickly!

2/16
The 20A.EU1 variant is characterised by spike mutation A222V & accounts for >20% sequences circulating in Europe currently. Another variant, 20.EU2 has the mutation S477N and is about 15% of sequences.

We focus on 20A.EU1 - you can see both here:

nextstrain.org/groups/neherla…

3/16
Read 18 tweets

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