Thread by @BigManBakar

The Review: GW 13 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I look back on the football played in midweek:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

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Q) Is it still worthwhile keeping faith in a defensive Chelsea double up?

With Chelsea failing to keep a clean sheet for three consecutive GWs, owners of the double up have started to grow impatient with the inability of these assets to gain defensive points...

...Let's take a look at the recent numbers of how Chelsea have fared defensively in the league:

Chelsea (GW 10-13)
Big chances conceded: 3 (League Rank: 3rd)
Shots inside the box conceded: 21 (League Rank: 3rd)
xG conceded: 2.70 (League Rank: 3rd)

Also looking at big chances conceded from open play over a span of the past eight GWs the number mentioned above (3) remains the same, which shows the huge potential in the Blues defence. Now let's take a look at how the likes of Chilwell and James are faring in the league:

Chilwell (Last 10 GWs):

Touches in the final third: 303 (League Rank: 2nd)
Chances created: 16 (League Rank: 2nd)
Big chances created: 1 (League Rank: 5th)

Reece James 20/21:

Touches in the final third: 296 (League Rank: 6th)
Chances created: 15 (League Rank: 4th)
Big chances created: 3 (League Rank: 3rd)

By looking at the underlying stats and the fixtures to follow (WHU ars AVL) it would make sense to hold on to the Chelsea double up, as it seems they have been unlucky to concede of late and stats show that the defensive points may start coming in soon.

Q: In this section I run the scanner over the Spurs attack and defence:

Spurs (Last 4 GWs):

Shots inside the box: 16 (League Rank: 20th)
Big chances: 6 (League Rank: 16th)
xG: 2.57 (League Rank: 20th)

Spurs (Last 4 GWs):

xG conceded: 4.06 (League Rank: 6th)
Shots conceded inside the box: 41 (League Rank: 4th)
Big chances conceded: 2 (League Rank: 2nd)

By looking at the stats it can be seen that of late Spurs and Mourinho have been prioritizing defence over their attack. This change has been implemented since the draw against West Ham when Mourinho made comments about how his team has failed to finish the wins off...

...It might be a bit early to consider a Kane/Son double up right now. However, the defensive stats look great and looking at the fixtures (LEI wol FUL LEE avl), investing in a Spurs defender might not be a bad shout – particularly considering that they don’t blank in GW 18.

Q: Does Liverpool hold the same attacking potential as they did at the start of the season?

Liverpool (GW 1-7) vs Liverpool (GW 8-13)
Shots inside the box per game: 11.4 vs 9.3
Big chances per game: 3.6 vs 2.2
Chances created per game: 11.9 vs 9.5

By looking at the stats we can see that there has been a noticeable drop in the attacking numbers. Despite having favorable fixtures in the last six GWs, Liverpool have failed to produce the free flowing football they played last season barring the game...

... against Leicester. This is probably why the likes of Mane and Salah lack the explosive potential they had at the start of the season, but looking at the fixtures to follow (cry WBA new sou) which are favorable, holding the assets might be a viable choice.

Q: Who is the best captaincy option this week?

Mohamed Salah, like every other week, is usually dependable as a captaincy choice. Having said that, Palace away doesn’t scream goals to me and I’ve just highlighted that Liverpool seem to be missing that creative spark at...

... the moment. I think Bruno Fernandes is the one I’d go for. Man United as a team have created the second highest number of big chances over the past four GWs while Fernandes as usual (barring his blip against Sheffield United) has been heavily involved – he...

...is top for chances created and 2nd best for big chances created among midfielders over the past 6 GWs. But for me, the main catch is Leeds – no team has conceded more big chances or have a worse xG than them over the past four GWs. I fancy this to be the week to target them.

Q: What is the ideal chip strategy?

This is a very team specific question, and like every season there is no right or wrong here. Particularly, this season given that we are likely to have an even more unusual scenario where most probably the biggest DGW of the season will...

... come as early as GW19. A popular strategy seems to be the Free Hit GW 18, Bench Boost GW 19 strategy because the fixtures seem structured in a way where you can’t possibly build an optimal team for bench boosting in GW 19 without Free hitting in GW 18. I’d like to lay...

... down the pros and cons of this strategy, while also addressing the additional strategies at play. The fixtures in GW 18 aren’t as appealing so perhaps the upside of Free Hitting in GW18 isn’t as great because the games don’t seem predictable. Spurs and Man City...

...have good fixtures and it’s likely that you’re going to have their key assets anyway. FPL managers will have to look at their own teams individually and assess whether the opportunity cost of Free Hitting in GW 18 is worth multiple transfer hits for the next blank GW...

... in GW 29. Alternatively, one use the Free Hit in GW 19 but I’m assuming most FPL managers will have the likes of Salah, Bruno, Soucek and Bamford in their teams already so that would reduce the upside of the chip. Triple captain in GW 19 can be decent, particularly...

... given Liverpool’s fixtures. The second wildcard will be available by GW 17 so there’s another strategy of a GW 17 wildcard, Free Hit GW 18 and Bench Boost GW 19 which could come into play. This also works perfectly and seems like the go to route for FPL managers who...

... have kept their first wildcard. The downside for those who have used their first wildcard though is that going all in would lessen their ability to navigate the blank and double GW’s later in the season.

Q: Is it time to invest in the midfield assets of Leeds?

After securing a massive win over Newcastle, Leeds are now top for shots inside the box, and xG over the last two GWs, these stats show a huge potential which the Leeds assets carry so let's take...

... a detailed look into the Leeds midfield:

Raphinha vs Harrison vs Klich (GW 9-13)
Mins per shot inside the box: 31.8 vs 90.3 vs 64.1
Mins per big chance: 445 vs 180.5 vs 449
Mins per big chance created: 445 vs 361 vs 224.5
Mins per chance created: 40.5 vs 36.1 vs 40.8

Looking at the underlying stats it can be seen Raphinha is the only one who seems to provide both a goal threat and an assist potential, but over a larger sample size the underlying numbers are really...

... inconsistent therefore I don’t think there is any bankable option around – I have a feeling they will take turns to come good!

Q: Ollie Watkins and Jack Grealish – sell or hold?

During midweek, Aston Villa managed to have the most shots inside the box and created the most number of chances, but this performance only saw them manage a draw against 17th placed Burnley. This performance also meant...

... a fourth consecutive blank for Ollie Watkins, let's take a look at how their main striker has been faring in recent weeks compared to the start of the season:

Watkins (GW 4-8) vs Watkins (GW 9-13)

Mins per shot inside the box: 34.6 vs 40
Mins per big chance: 56.3 vs 180
Mins per big chance created: 450 vs 360

It’s noticeable there has been a significant drop in the attacking potential of Watkins...

... who isn’t getting the quality chances he was being fed with earlier. The loss of penalties is a further blow to his potential. In isolation, for a 6 million asset I don’t think his numbers are as bad though so maybe it might still be worth persisting with him given...

... the fixtures. With most of his chances being created by Jack Grealish, it would make sense to see how he has fared during recent weeks:

Grealish (GW4-7) vs Grealish (GW 8-13)

Mins per shot inside the box: 36 vs 37.5
Mins per big chance: 90 vs 450
Mins per big chance created: 72 vs 225
Mins per chance created: 30 vs 25

By looking at Grealish's stats it can be seen that the quality of chances have...

... significantly reduced as well. I think the loss of Barkley has been huge which has caused this problem but given that he is likely to return soon, I would suggest that holding the Villa assets might be the sensible action as the fixtures for the next couple...

... of GWs seem favorable (wba CRY che mun TOT) and them featuring in the blank GW18 is an added bonus.

Q: Is it time to invest in Wolves attacking assets?

After securing a huge win over Chelsea during midweek, Wolves started to turn a few heads showing a return to form. Let's take a look at whether or not there has been change in the attacking numbers for Wolves...

... midfielders since their star striker Raul Jimenez picked up an injury:

Podence (GW 1-10) vs Podence (GW 11-13)
Mins per shot inside the box: 60.1 vs 62.5
Mins per big chance: 220.3 vs 250
Mins per big chance created: 330.5 vs 250

Neto (GW 1-10) vs Neto (GW 11-13)
Mins per shot inside the box: 84.7 vs 129.5
Mins per big chance: 381 vs 259
Mins per big chance created: 254 vs 259

By looking at the stats it can be seen that the change in the numbers isn’t too significant...

...Looking at the fixtures (bur TOT mun bha EVE), they seem mixed but a key indicator is a fixture in the blank GW18, and with Podence nailed on to feature in the starting lineup, he might prove...

... to be a handy differential during this run. I wouldn’t recommend investing but I’d definitely keep if you have him. Same with Neto.

Q: Has Kevin De Bruyne been unlucky of late?

A second consecutive draw for Man City also saw De Bruyne blank for the second consecutive GW which has caused concern among FPL managers due to the premium price tag that the Belgian carries...

... Let's take a deep dive into the underlying numbers:

De Bruyne (GW 8-11) vs De Bruyne (GW 12-13)

Mins per shot inside the box: 32.7 vs 45
Mins per big chance: 120 vs 180
Mins per big chance created: 72 vs 60

It’s evident that the numbers have been more or less the same...

... The creativity has in-fact improved, and it is no wonder that De Bruyne ended up on two bonus points against West Brom due to the consistency with which he was feeding quality chances to his team mates, only to be denied time and again by Sam Johnstone. With Pep Guardiola...

... confirming there is no urgent need of resting him anytime soon, De Bruyne is a hold for me, particularly with the fixture list coming up (sou NEW eve che BHA).

Q: Who are the Man City attacking assets to own except Kevin De Bruyne?

Mahrez vs Sterling vs Torres
Mins per shot inside the box: 50 vs 47.9 vs 46.9
Mins per big chance: 250 vs 130 vs 211
Mins per big chance created: 150 vs 303.3 vs 422

Mahrez and Sterling are neck to neck for underlying numbers and with fixtures coming up in quick succession this week, (sou NEW eve che BHA) expect Guardiola to rotate the side. Sterling at that price without the captaincy is not worth the premium. Gabriel Jesus who has failed...

... to manage a shot on target over the last four GWs is another concern for FPL managers, particularly with Agüero back in the mix. Mahrez seems to be the best option this gameweek having already had his rest. Beware with City assets going forward though as they may require...

... attention every week, since each asset may be rotated at any time, which means it may cost the precious free transfer every week! It’s also important to note that Man City aren’t the team they were in the yesteryears and that there attacking potential has dropped, so...

... an attacking double up now isn’t as obvious now as it would have been a year or two ago:

In the first 12 games of 20/21 v 19/20 v 18/19 v 17/18:

Big chances: 31 v 56 v 44 v 54
Shots inside the box: 122 v 186 v 162 v 135

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