Current Re estimate 0.85 (95% cri 0.7 - 1.0). The model is not predicting a "third wave", since it estimates that infections <65y have continued to decrease (see more below). 1/5 #COVID19be 
Zoomed in version (as PDF: genomedetective.com/covid19-epi/be…). Case data <65y (which isn't being used by the model) is being overestimated since the end of October, but could now be starting to follow the predicted (downward) trend of the model.🤞 2/5
The model motivates the optimism mostly based on hospitalization data. Although age information of daily hospitalizations is lacking, since last week, the model uses weekly hospitalization age distribution from surveys. 3/5
Combined with daily hospitalization data, this suggests that hospitalizations <65y kept decreasing. From this, the model infers that infections <65y kept decreasing too. This would be in agreement with test positivity rates which have continued to decline too. 4/5
The recent increase in detected infections would then be mostly due to the changed test strategy from end November, and the rate at which infections are being found is estimated to have climbed back to the level of mid October. 5/5
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
