BREAKING—Faced w/ new #SARSCoV2 mutation w/ "significantly faster" transmission rates, Boris Johnson tightened #COVID19 restrictions. 🇬🇧 Chief medical officer Chris Whitty said scientists consider this new strain to *move more quickly between people*. 🧵 washingtonpost.com/world/europe/c…
2) “New mutation, or variants, was first detected in southeast England in September and is becoming more prevalent in new cases.”

But there is no evidence at this time to suggest the new strain is more deadly or able to elude vaccines designed to defeat it.
3) “We have alerted the World Health Organization and are continuing to analyze the available data to improve our understanding,”
4) “British scientists have been following the spread of the new variant for nearly three months, eventually seeing it in samples taken from more than 1,100 people, most of whom lived in the southeast of England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿”
5) “What surprised them was the sudden prevalence of the variant in samples of mucus and salvia taken from patients.

“This lineage came up quite rapidly,” said Nick Loman, a professor of microbial genomics at the University of Birmingham.
6) The scientists said thousands of mutations of the cornovirus have been detected in samples taken around the world, and that new lineages arise and then usually disappear.
But Loman also said the number of mutations on this new strain was striking.
7) The new variant showed 17 mutations, most in a segment of the virus’s genome that encodes for the spike protein, the protruding structure essential to the pathogen’s ability to bind with the receptor cells in a person who gets exposed and then infected.
8) the new mutation with 17 changes was first recognized earlier this week and reported 3 days ago.
9) Here was the early warning 5 days ago from UK 🇬🇧 health secretary to UK parliament. Pretty serious if they had to warn parliament.
10) Mutations happen all the time, most inert. But the longer we let the pandemic linger in nature, the greater the chance of “unlucky” mutations. Mink example:
11) Most of the time harmless but this one is become to slowly dominate more and more of the total fraction of cases. See pink — it’s been slowly emerging for several months, to now becoming the 2nd most dominate in UK from nothing.
12) WOW, the variant is so dominant, it is now 43% of all #COVID19 cases in Southeast, 59% in east, and 62% of all cases in London!! From press conference report. amp.theguardian.com/world/live/202…
13) DETAILED UPDATE on the U.K. 🇬🇧 mutation— with detailed discussions added on the mutations.
14) Note that the UK 🇬🇧 new variant in #SARSCoV2 is a different strain from the South Africa 🇿🇦 variant... which is also more contagious than the most common type, and possibly more severe... 👇

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More from @DrEricDing

21 Dec
Why did UK travel bans go into place so fast?

➡️ Because we have learned our lesson of being slow in the spring.

"Be fast, have no regrets."

Dr Michael J Ryan of WHO says "the greatest error is not to move" and "speed trumps perfection". #COVID19

2) We cannot “play it down” anymore. We cannot ignore the science and do nothing.

My video:
3) Someone you know tried to warn in January... it has haunted me to this day...

nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Read 4 tweets
21 Dec
📍Mutation “feat never seen before”...

UPDATE on UK 🇬🇧 strain of #SARSCoV2 & how it evolved so fast:

Variant B.1.1.7 (aka VUI-202012-01) has 23 mutations—but acquired suddenly 17 mutations “all at once”—which experts say is *a feat never seen before*.🧵
sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/m… Image
2) First, today’s 🧵 further elaborates on yesterday’s 31-post 🧵.

Notably, we previously discussed the possibility of antibody therapy (convalescent plasma and monoclonal antibody drugs) in maybe exacerbating the mutation in someone chronically infected. (Post #18 and #23+)
3) But let’s first talk about the mutations.

One reason to be concerned is that among the 17 are eight mutations in the gene that encodes the spike protein on the viral surface, two of which are particularly worrisome... Image
Read 36 tweets
21 Dec
Bad take—this table shows the risk of HOSPITALIZATION by age versus comorbidity—1 comorbidity condition = 65+ elderly age.

Meanwhile, Nate’s figure was just death **if hospitalized**, a very narrow subset. Feel free to tell overwhelmed HCWs that merely 🏥 is no biggie. Image
2) Other fellow PhD epidemiologists like @AbdulElSayed also agree Nate’s analysis sucks.
Read 4 tweets
21 Dec
THAT DAY HAS ARRIVED—

Los Angeles County hospitals are preparing for potential *healthcare rationing* as ICUs overloaded with #COVID19. New proposed guidelines call for a shift towards maximizing saveable lives, and prioritizing care with best chance. 🧵
latimes.com/california/sto… Image
2) “Instead of trying everything to save a patient, their goal during a crisis is to save as many patients as possible, meaning those less likely to survive will not receive the same level of care they would have otherwise...”
3) “Doctors will no longer be pulling out all the stops to save a life but instead strategizing about how to keep as many people as possible from perishing.
Read 10 tweets
21 Dec
NEW—Canada 🇨🇦 suspends entry of all commercial & private passenger flights from the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 for 72 hours, effective midnight. Canada joins a slew of European countries in ordering travel bans from UK over risk of importing new #SARSCoV2 variant.
canada.ca/en/public-heal…
2) US still has not acted to impose any travel restrictions from UK yet. Meanwhile...
3) While wait for Trump WH to act, catch yourself up on the latest U.K. 🇬🇧 mutated strain that is causing headache and worry worldwide.
Read 4 tweets
20 Dec
Who did this? It’s brilliant!

The coronavirus vaccine won’t leave a scar. But it’ll protect us and our next generation. #COVID19 Image
2) born in a developing country, I was in the final generation to get the smallpox vaccine. The bifurcated needle scar sits on atop my deltoid as a reminder.

Smallpox vaccine has literally saved HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF LIVES. If you only knew life before the vaccine...
3) Many are asking about the new U.K. #SARSCoV2 mutation... here is a detailed thread 🧵 I wrote overnight that explains the latest.
Read 4 tweets

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