Thread by @atatimelikethis

Excuse the following:

WE ARE VERY LUCKY THE ONLY EFFECT OF THIS MUTATION IS HIGHER RATES OF TRANSMISSION.

Because it could have been much worse, it could make the new vaccines redundant.

Who says mutation can only happen once?

A thread to explain⏬

I started to talk about the risk of Viral Mutation on 23rd March. That long ago we knew enough.

We all now have a much better understanding of viruses it's worth recapping the risks of mutation, and the implications.

And why I fear Johnson risks another.

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1263243064698601472?s=19

For background reading not covered here ⏬ a long backstory and history on why viral suppression is so crucial.

At the time Trump and Johnson were rewriting all our learnings over 20 years from HIV

TLDR: they were worsening chances of mutation

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1262900418163736576?s=19

Why is that?
We draw on what we know, so for example many people know that if you are not careful with antibiotics, then you can breed bacteria which are resistant to them.

The same is not generally true of viruses and vaccines.
It's the reverse.
Don't let them spread untreated

Please understand these are very simplified general rules but they come from the differences in how most medicines for bacteria vs viruses work.

The summary is antibiotics train bacteria to resist
Whereas vaccines clamp down on the ability of viruses to mutate.

This has two significant implications.

1. The more UNTREATED people you let a virus circulate between, the higher your chances of creating a virus that is so different that your vaccines no longer work on it.

One more reason to condemn "Great Barrington" advocates

2. If you choose a policy of preventing developing counties accessing vaccines for profit, you achieve the reverse.

You're actually increasing the chances your expensive vaccine will become redundant because you have mutation uncontrolled abroad that will eventually circulate.

It was point 2 that had me most concerned in May as Trump and HMG cooked up plans to prevent 3rd world coronavirus generics.

But that was before point 1 became an issue. Because AFTER that Trump let the virus run rampant in the US and Johnson failed on Test and Isolate.

Both those failures increased transmission and with that increase comes greater mutation chance.

To repeat the issue.

WE ARE VERY LUCKY THE ONLY EFFECT OF THIS MUTATION IS HIGHER RATES OF TRANSMISSION.

It's pure chance this happened here.
Or was it just detected here?

Coronaviruses are highly mutagenic.

Moreover they have a clever inbuilt trick that makes their mutations more likely to be viable than other viruses.

If anyone you know was complacent or in denial, maybe this will wake them up.

So what are the conclusions?

CONCLUSIONS

1. We must, finally, shine a light on test and isolate. Fire the nepotistic appointments. Staff it with unemployed or furloughed if need be.

2. Pressure on Trump even before Biden...use our narrow escape for good.

3. Use this latest lockdown well for a change*

* that means, after the event use the drop in infections to help number 1.

4. Clamp down on the denialists, especially on Tory backbenchers whose uninformed Dunning Kruger thinking would have us increase chance of mutation.

(Mutation happens whether you're sick or not).

5. Make sure vaccines get to the developing world so we don't create offshore versions of the virus we can't treat...reinstating DIFID where we had people who understood this stuff, would help.

Many today are mourning Christmas.

So am I.

But don't be sad.

You just had a narrow escape. Those who need it can still be vaccinated.

It could have been no Christmas
AND
No vaccine.

Finally, the warning.

Nothing in this thread is a revelation if you're a scientist. That's why I could talk about it in March.

So why didn't we take action?

Our problem is not a micro virus...
It's the macro virus that is replicating bad decisions from Number10⏬

While this Government
stays in power,
refuses to learn from mistakes,
even to admit them
blames young, old, nurses, you!
And keeps making the same mistakes over and over again.

The ONLY thing you can be sure of is more will die at their hands.

They need to stand down.