My piece below looks at Sweden. Recent days have seen Sweden’s Nordic neighbours Finland and Norway offer emergency medical assistance as Stockholm’s hospitals overflow & the King make an unprecedented criticism of the failed strategy. What went wrong?
Sweden started with massive advantages: more people living alone than anywhere else and a sparse population. But it ended up with death rates 9 and 10 times that of neighbours Finland and Norway
Nor has there been an economic upside for Sweden: in fact they had a bigger hit to their economy than their neighbours, as well as much worse health outcomes.
As Swedish virologist Lena Einhorn concludes: “Sweden’s strategy has proven to be a dramatic failure.”
This matters because the Swedish experiment reveals the failure of the underlying herd immunity theories of the covid-sceptics.
We have plenty to learn from other countries, but we'd be better off learning from Australia, New Zealand, Korea, Japan and Taiwan, all with case rates 5% of the EU average.
It isn’t Swedish lessons we need. The better lesson is the simpler one from our antipodean cousins: wallop the virus as hard as you can.
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ONE BOGUS CLAIM IN THE TELEGRAPH AND WHY IT MATTERS – A thread
The Sunday Telegraph reports that “Boris Johnson's decision to impose tougher tiers of restrictions on much of the country this week will cost the economy £900 million a day, according to a leading economic forecaster.”
The forecaster in question is Doug McWIlliams at @Cebr_uk . The Sunday Telegraph reports that: “New analysis estimates the new tiers will result in England's GDP being 13pc smaller, or £900 million a day, compared with Dec last year”.
The Daily Mail published this chart. 2 things about it struck me. First, I’d seen the same data from the ONS, which sadly showed excess deaths in recent weeks – in fact higher than any time in the last 5 years. But this chart purported to show just the opposite. First, the Mail:
And now the ONS data. It is back above the highest levels we have seen in recent years. Given it is a lagging indicator, it may keep rising for a bit yet.
TAKING THE GREAT BARRINGTON DECLARARTION SERIOUSLY – a thread.
1 or 2 MPs have advocated the ideas in the “Great Barrington Declaration”: that we should get back to normal, go for herd immunity, & try to shield the elderly & vulnerable. Rather than dismiss this out of hand I've tried to crunch some numbers on what it would mean in practice.
First, how many people would need to totally isolate as the virus accelerates through the rest of the population?
Quick thread on our "levelling up" report today & new Taskforce.
Most people know there's a big gap in earnings and incomes between London, the SE & Scotland on the one hand and the rest of the country on the other (map below). But lots turns on how you measure things... (1/15)
My report looks at how subtly different ways of measuring performance can tell VERY different stories about what's happening in different places. (2/15)
For example, if you look at the employment rate for 16-64 year olds, London is in the middle of the pack.
But look at 16+ employment, and London (in red) is zooming ahead - pension age employment is much higher there. (3/15)
Here's a strange thing. Certain types of spending, transport, R&D, housing, culture, are vital to boost productivity. Yet in Britain we spend more on these things in places where productivity is already high. @guymiscampbell and I have a report out exploring why. Thread ahoy!
First, transport. London is the big winner, followed by two other high-productivity places. Between 2007/8 and 2018/19 capital spending on transport in London was around £6,600 per head, nearly three (2.75) times the average in the rest of England (£2,400).
There are multiple reasons for this. Places with strong devolved governments (London &Scotland) have more capacity to bid. We spend a big chunk of the budget on rail, which is a big share of journeys in London, but v small elsewhere. London makes out like a bandit on rail spend: