1) On limitations of traditional DCF & other analysis (that assume low terminal growth & mean-reverting) when it comes to exceptionally durable businesses.
"Holding a variant perception on the sustainability of growth and resultant business worth can equip an investor with the fortitude to remain invested in these compounding machines".
"When it come’s to long term business success, sharing scale benefits with the customer, grasping increased returns, optimizing your market and ensuring an enduring culture can go a long way to fight the FADE that inflicts typical businesses."
Overall, an excellent compilation of thoughts on this topic, which is very important for long-term investors that can identify excellence and monitor/hold them for a longtime, while fighting the constant noise and temptation to sell those businesses.
/END.
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On Seeking Alpha, "Integrator" (not sure about Twitter presence) is one of my favorite authors along with @FromValue @andrescardenal @EconomyApp
Bert Hochfeld
👏👏
Few of my fav articles of his.
1⃣ The 5 Elements That Make For An Outstanding Business
-Seek Economic Moats in any investment
-Having an awareness of your circle of competence
-Investing for the ultra long term
-Take advantage of a bargain hiding in plain sight
-Preservation of Capital, Above all
3⃣ 5 Common Mistakes In Evaluating High-Growth Companies
-It has already gone up so much.
-Fearing short interest
-Fearing future Competition
-Fearing stock dilution due to secondary offerings
-Fearing current losses
LESSON #1: Government policy can greatly affect your investment portfolio, for good or ill.
LESSON #2: Bull markets climb a wall of worry.
LESSON #3: Don’t fight the Fed. Adjust your portfolio when money is tight, and again when money is easy.
LESSON #4: Gold is money and the best insurance against an inflationary future and bad government policy, but don’t go overboard buying gold. (Not for everyone, but the author mentions that it should be done only as insurance. I guess Bitcoin is the proxy for it these days).
Thanks Irnest. My investing philosophy is that we need to start with good first principles/frameworks like the ones in that document, but then adapt it to the current Business/Market environment.
Time for a Scorecard📊and thesis📑updates for purchases done in Feb/Mar 2020. Last review done in late April. How far things have come since then.😯
Not taking any drastic actions, other than few sells in fully valued, slower growth Co.'s.
Events since then
✔️Co's reporting two Qtrly reports
✔️Accelerating growth for few sectors
✔️Understandable problems for few others
✔️Crazy run-ups & valuations in the last 9 mo's, supported by biz growth in some cases, but mostly due to Monetary factors & Investor enthusiasm...
I usually buy for two scenarios
1⃣Leading Co's within strong secular trends, that also have strong Management Teams and solid Financials (Rev growth, Profitability or improving Margins/FCF prospects, no balance sheet risk...).