tl;dr
- Traded $32k to $1.2m
- Thought I was a genius
- Made poor investments
- Didn't conserve capital
- Peaked at 150 BTC
- Lost nearly all of it
2 weeks from losing my house + no income. Oops.
3/ I am going to assume you are in it for the money rather than the tech. Yeah, you might Tweet about the amazing blockchaining of cross-border payments and oracles yadda yadda...really, you are in it to make money.
If you are really in it for the tech, go and build something.
4/ Okay, so if you want to make money, trading is super hard, you are trading against:
- Better traders than you
- People who can move markets
- Unknown information
And if you are trading with leverage you might blow up your account with the volatility.
5/ If you are not trading, you are investing. Okay, so what are you investing in?
I made the decision that the crypto with the best opportunity of existing in 10 years is #Bitcoin:
- Solves a genuine problem
- The right tech
- A proven track record
6/ An easy signal for being right about #bitcoin is the institutional interest. How much interest is there in:
- Ethereum (minimal)
- XRP (Arrington Capital, oops)
- Link (lol)
- Dentacoin (err)
But Bitcoin - MicroStrategy, Square, Ruffers, MassMutual...
7/ Also - Grayscale, Coinshares, Skybridge, that millionaire Mexican dude.
There is a wall of money coming, and it isn't going into XRP... another easy signal, these people don't want to sell their #bitcoin, why? @bgarlinghouse can't wait to unload his shitcoin on you, why?
8/ Even the shitcoiners hold Bitcoin:
- Tezos foundation
- Block One (remember EOS?)
- I suspect Roger Ver still holds a load
- Even rogue states
9/ But why #bitcoin:
- Only crypto which is meaningfully decentralised
- Regulatory moat established
- Genuine censorship resistance
- Fixed cap
- Predictable issuance
It is the best and hardest fucking money that has ever existed. You can argue against this but you are wrong.
10/ Every cycle:
- Detractors turn to bulls
- Maxi narratives are proved right
- Price sets new all-time highs
- Security increases
- Governments print more useless fiat
11/ I was an idiot through the last cycle:
- Argued against narratives
- Tried to fix Bitcoin (I was new and knew better)
- wAs oPeN MiNdEd
- Watched by BTC stack dwindle away
12/ But a full cycle teaches you a lot of things. Here are the most important lessons...
13/ LESSON 1 "The amount of sats you own is more important than the dollar value of your stack".
21 million divided by your sat stack = your score.
$ value is volatile but your score is the amount of the new financial paradigm you own.
Stop playing short-term games, zoom that shit out, if you can't handle the drops you are over-leveraged.
Bitcoin is economics 101 - supply and demand. We're talking about hard money, people who get #Bitcoin stay, they rarely sell...
15/ LESSON 3 "Find your edge"
Yeah, you're going to out trade the market, sure you are. Some will, most won't.
My edge is podcasting, so I make shows, sell adds, make a profit and buy #bitcoin. What is your edge?
16/ It really is that fucking simple: 1. Earn money 2. Buy #Bitcoin 3. Be patient
I know what some of you are thinking, but what if #bitcoin fails? Have you not seen the shit it has survived? Silk Road, Mt. Gox, civil wars.
It is still here and stronger than ever.
17/ Still have doubts? Go and spend some time reading stuff at the Nakamoto Institute. I have had my differences with @pierre_rochard but he has been right about so much, usually years ahead of how this plays out.
18/ You don't need to worry too much about the politics, whether you are a libertarian, conservative, progressive or jedi - everyone benefits from hard money.
Look, 2018 sucked, going from paper millionaire to broke was a motherfucker, but tears won't bring back the money.
19/ I have operated with one basic goal since then...
...at the end of every month, I will have more sats than the end of the last month.
Then with a little patience, I trust #bitcoin to do its thing.
20/ But Pete, #bitcoin is too expensive, XRP is only $0.30. If #bitcoin is expensive then why aren't bitcoiners selling? @jack isn't selling, @michael_saylor isn't selling....
...we're not fucking selling because it is heading to $100k.
21/ ...we're not selling at $100k because it is heading to $500k.
...we're not selling at $500k because it is heading to $1m.
(Okay, I will definitely sell a little at $1m for a Lambo, bite me - but 0.2btc for a Lambo, sounds good right?)
22/ #bitcoin teaches financial discipline, it is really simple. It rewards prudence while fiat rewards recklessness.
Inflation punishes the prudent. This isn't right, is it?
23/ So do your thing. If you still want to invest in shitcoins, trade etc... good luck to you.
If you want to build a solid financial future then you need to build solid foundations. You got this!
...Stack sats, eat your veg, get some sunlight, stay healthy, enjoy all forms of art, be patient, laugh at Tottenham and have a merry fucking Christmas.
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Dear @TuvaluGov, it was just announced that you will embark upon a project to become the world's first paperless society using Bitcoin Satoshi Vision (BSV).
I am sure you have spoken to Mr @CalvinAyre about this project, I have attached a picture to jog your memory.
Cont...
Perhaps you do not know too much about Mr Ayre or his colleagues, I have attached some links for you.
1/ Big section in Paul Tudor Jone's Q3 investment letter regarding #bitcoin...
"In listing all the instruments that might respond to the Great Monetary Inflation, the may investor letter postulated that one day #Bitcoin might become the fastest horse in the race."
2/ "This cryptocurrency is a beneficiary for a variety of reasons. In essence, #Bitcoin shares many of the requisite characteristics historical stores of value such as fiat currency, gold, real estate, art and others."
3/ "Those characteristics include the protection of purchasing power, trustworthiness, liquidity and portability...and so far #bitcoin has comfortably taken the lead, arguably helped by its small initial market cap."
Thread looking at the current lawsuits from @realDonaldTrump 👇👇👇
*Pennsylvania
1/ PA supreme court decision to allow mail-in ballots 3 days after election day i.e. mail-in ballots received by Friday 6th Nov can be counted. Trump campaign asking US Supreme Court to intervene.
2/ The Supreme Court twice declined to overrule deadline, but several conservative justices indicated that they might be willing to revisit the case.
Late mail-in ballots are currently being segregated from other ballots pending the legal challenge.
3/ However, a number of conservative surrogates are questioning if this is happening.
PA secretary of state stated on Nov 4th Wednesday that there are only “hundreds” of such votes.
The fall in the quality of real investigative journalism has been harmed by the economics of production + the competition being rewarded for low-quality partisan baiting.
We're in a post-truth era.
Cont...
There is a high reward for spreading conspiracy on Twitter, particularly with right-wing voters.
There is a low time investment to credibility reward for fact-checking accusations:
- Facts spun
- Sources not trusted
- Ability to keep up with the speed of information
Trust has been eroded with right-wing voters due to the left bias of MSM and board control of social media giants.
Trump has perpetuated the problem with his FakeNews campaign which is baked in both truths and falsities. Confusion reigns and voters retreat to echo chambers.