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24 Dec, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Council presidency has just decided that at this point it's too late to convene a meeting of national governments today if a #BrexitDeal is agreed.

I'm hearing that they don't want to have that meeting on Christmas. So we may be looking at Saturday before we se deal text.
So what's the holdup on the #BrexitDeal?

They've agreed contours and overcome the 3 big hurdles: level playing field, governance and fisheries access.

But last-minute technical specifications such as fish stocks are taking some time. This is a very complicated deal.

Latest:
Any EU27 leader could veto the Commission's agreement in the next days.

On UK side, Johnson technically doesn't need parliament approval. But politically, he'll want support of ERG MPs. Will they be angry that he gave in on LPF rules they've said will make UK a "client state"?
Oof, in the end the German presidency *will* convene a meeting of EU ambassadors tomorrow on Christmas Day to present the #BrexitDeal text.

No rest for the weary. Hope the permanent representatives can still salvage some Christmas time 😢🎄

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More from @DaveKeating

Dave Keating Profile picture
25 Dec
UK students have been benefitting from #Erasmus pan-EU education exchange for 35 years. 200,000 people are now taking part. They'll suddenly lose access in 6 days.

@BorisJohnson insisted that UK students wouldn't lose this education after #Brexit. Now he says it's too expensive.
Two important points on #Erasmus:

👩‍🎓It largely benefitted students from middle-class families who otherwise wouldn't have been able to afford to study abroad.

Without it, study abroad will again be only available to the rich, like where I come from in the US.
🇺🇸 Johnson intends to replace #Erasmus with a "#Turing Programme" that will send students all over the world. I expect that will be mostly to the US.

Due to the difference in tuition fees, money that could send 100 students to Europe can probably only send 5 students to America.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Keating Profile picture
25 Dec
Yesterday's #BrexitDeal is the first free trade deal in history to disintegrate a trading partnership rather than build a new one, erecting and defining barriers between markets. politico.eu/article/uk-eu-…
One of the most extraordinary aspects of these negotiations is that both sides fought so intensively over fish, a very small part of their economy.

But the UK didn't put up much of a fight on services, which is *80%* of the UK's economic activity.
There is no provision for financial services in the #BrexitDeal. Passporting that allowed automatic access for British firms to EU market, will suddenly end in 6 days.

This will make a heavy impact on the UK economy given 40% of the UK's exports to the EU are services.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Keating Profile picture
24 Dec
I suspect this will be lost in #BrexitDeal coverage. While this isn't #NoDealBrexit, it is a #HardBrexit.

”This will be as hard a Brexit as anything but no deal, and much harder than might have been expected after the relatively narrow referendum result"
economist.com/britain/2020/1…
The 'hard' and 'soft' terms seem to have gotten warped over the past 4 years (especially, I notice, in US media).

After 2016 referendum Theresa May had to choose: soft Brexit (Norway), semi-hard Brexit (Turkey), or hard Brexit (Morocco). She chose the latter, hoping for an FTA.
The #BrexitDeal leaves UK as the only Western European country outside the EU single market.

Listening to @BorisJohnson's presser, you'd be forgiven for thinking the UK was *joining* the EU rather than leaving - such was his focus on benefits of supposedly zero-tariff trade.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Keating Profile picture
24 Dec
🇬🇧🤝🇪🇺White Smoke: Habemus #BrexitDeal 🇪🇺🤝🇬🇧
UK govt spokesperson: "This agreement allows the beginning of a new relationship between the UK and the EU. One that we have always wanted - a thriving trading and economic relationship between a sovereign UK and our European partners and friends."
UK spokes says the #BrexitDeal just agreed ensures:

💷100% tariff liberalisation.

📦No constraints for UK investors & service suppliers on EU market access

👩‍⚖️Future law enforcement and judicial cooperation

🧑‍🔬Future research cooperation
Read 16 tweets
Dave Keating Profile picture
22 Dec
Breaking: EU Commission recommends countries drop all UK travel bans, including on freight.

It looks like they have concluded that Johnson may have been exaggerating the threat posed by the English mutation. ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Commission: “Until the end of December, free movement rules still apply to the UK. This means that Member States should not in principle refuse the entry of persons travelling from the UK.”

In other words, EU countries legally cannot ban entry to Brits until 1 January.
I would expect an announcement from Paris shortly that they are ending the UK freight ban.
Read 6 tweets
Dave Keating Profile picture
21 Dec
If a deal is agreed in the next days, the UK Parliament will be given only 1 day to approve it.

At 1,000 pages, there's no way MPs will be able to read it before voting on it.

But in any event, under UK law Johnson doesn't even need to ask MPs. He can ratify an FTA on his own.
Though parliamentary approval of a free trade deal isn't required by UK law, it is required by EU law.

The European Parliament has said it's now too late for them to approve before 1 Jan. To do so would be a "dereliction of democratic duty" MEPs say.
However, it appears that EU parliament can be bypassed for a *provisional* approval, which would only need assent of the 27 EU national governments in the Council.

But that only buys some time. Deal would eventually need approval by EP and probably also 27 national parliaments.
Read 4 tweets

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