It was most clear today when Peston asked Johnson a semi complicated question - and then Johnson went off on a circuitous and plain strange answer you were just waiting for it to stop because it was too painful
2/11
"He's just a bullshitter" you might say
But I am not sure. Today I had the feeling he did not even understand what he was being asked
There is an emptiness to this version of Johnson that I find hard to fathom
3/11
I went back over some old films of Johnson on Youtube
Here he is asking his first question at a PMQs, in 2003
4/11
Here he is in an interview in 2006
5/11
Hosting Have I Got News For You in 2006 (we also learn he can use an autocue from this one)
6/11
And a Mayor's Question Time in 2014
7/11
Johnson is pretty awful in many of those. But - in comparison to the Johnson we see today - he is sharp. His words flow more easily. He speaks faster. His eyes are alive. His body language less strange.
8/11
Yes, what he says is often still waffle, and the umms and ahhhs are all still there. But there is a sharpness, a liveliness about him that he now no longer seems able to exhibit.
9/11
It has been a hell of a year, *and* he had Coronavirus, but this is not the Johnson of old. How he handled questions was not always this excruciating.
10/11
When we ask ourselves today "how did anyone fall for this guy's politics before?" I think we need to add a further question: "is this the same Johnson?"
The transformation is quite marked.
11/11
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But it looks like Starmer is committed to the error... but what then? Can it be put right? A 🧵
Whatever Starmer hopes or thinks, the EU issue is not going to disappear from UK politics
The Deal isn’t good. It’ll cause practical headaches, esp at Dover. It’ll damage UK’s economic prospects
Short term Brexit helps drive support for independence in Scotland too, although let’s assume for now Scotland is still in the UK at the time of the next General Election - in 2024
I wonder whether the "new variant" of Coronavirus was one of those Sliding Doors moments... for Brexit
Had the new variant not emerged, COVID spread in South Eastern England might have been slower
And at the very least lockdown not working, rather than the "new variant", would have been communicated as the cause of a spike
By so strongly attributing *everything* to the "new variant" (whether rightly or wrongly is immaterial here), other countries were rightly fearful, and closed their borders to the UK
I think there is nothing more I can contribute now
When Brexit matters have been uncertain I have tried to map what happens next
But now we know what the next steps are
It's odds-on a text will emerge. The Council will approve it by written procedure (🇫🇮🇳🇱 Parliaments might need to mandate their Prime Ministers to OK it, but they will)
On 🇬🇧 side the Commons and Lords will meet 30 December to approve a Bill implementing it
There'll be some gnashing of teeth, and complains about P. 427 sub para 4(b), but they'll approve it
Starmer will likely whip to vote For it, and a couple of front benchers might resign
If - as we now think - a Deal is to be announced at press conferences in an hour, a few thoughts
🧵
First, this was NOT always inevitable. There have been times when it looked like progress was impossible.
Second, this isn’t the “EU conceding at the last minute because that’s what they do” - because the EU hasn’t conceded. The outcome looks to be v close to EU’s opening offer.