Thread by @jonworth

I’ve argued in depth why Labour ought to abstain rather than voting for a Deal: jonworth.eu/why-if-there-i…

@campbellclaret & @annaturley have made similar arguments

But it looks like Starmer is committed to the error... but what then? Can it be put right? A 🧵

Whatever Starmer hopes or thinks, the EU issue is not going to disappear from UK politics

The Deal isn’t good. It’ll cause practical headaches, esp at Dover. It’ll damage UK’s economic prospects

Short term Brexit helps drive support for independence in Scotland too, although let’s assume for now Scotland is still in the UK at the time of the next General Election - in 2024

The EU question is *inevitably* going to be present then... because the Deal just agreed has a 4 year review clause

Like it or not, parties are going to have to answer what they would do post-review

The Tories will say they want the current Deal, or harder still

Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru will push for a closer relationship with the EU

What does Labour do?

Sit there like a 🐇 in the 🔦 and let the debate play out around it - as has happened these past 4 years?

Or work out a position?

Labour simply cannot afford to hope the issue goes away. The Tories will happily beat Labour with the EU stick, and the Lib Dems will see a pro-EU position as their way back to relevance

Note I’m not expecting Labour to take a Rejoin position in 2024. But they’re going to have to be pro-closer-relationship enough to stop haemorrhaging votes to the Lib Dems and others

I think Starmer is making an error now. But perhaps he can get away with it - if there follows an effort in Labour to develop a position on UK-EU relations

If instead Starmer thinks the 30 Dec vote means Brexit is “done” and the EU issue will go away... then it’s his electoral prospects that are likely to be the thing that’s done for

/ends

Also: please don’t even *consider* replying to this with “but if Labour doesn’t back a Deal it’ll be No Deal”. It’s rubbish. If Labour abstains you need 140 Tories to rebel. The ERG is 50-60. Labour could v safely abstain.