Thread by @jonworth

End of Sunday 20 December
End of Wednesday 23 December
End of Thursday 31 December

The 3 deadlines in the #Brexit end game

They all matter, and what happens when, is going to shape the outcome

A 🧵 to explain it all...

1/15

Midnight CET night of Thursday 31 December into 1 January is the hard deadline - that is when the Brexit transition period ends

The central question: when that Deadline passes, does 🇬🇧 have a trade deal with 🇪🇺 or not?

2/15

Some politicians and commentators have stated that negotiations can continue right up until the last second.

That might happen, but is not going to stop No Deal - because some things *other than* rounds of talks have to happen for No Deal to be avoided

3/15

That is why there have been two pre-deadlines - one end of Sunday 20 December (that passed), and the second one end of Sunday 23 December (to come)

4/15

End of Sunday 20 December was the deadline set by the European Parliament - it said that any Deal struck after that cannot be ratified by the EP in 2020, but only in 2021

The EP stuck to its word, but there were ways forward nevertheless...

5/15

The way around that deadline was Provisional Application - for the 27 🇪🇺 Member States, and 🇬🇧, to let the Deal enter into force, but leave the ratification from the European Parliament until some time in 2021

The EP doesn't like this solution much, but no MEP ruled it out

6/15

But that route - a Deal concluded by 31 December, using Provisional Ratification - expires at the end of Wednesday 23 December

See:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1341054043792261124

7/15

This is because 3 other things have to happen before a Deal can be completely finalised
- text has to be legally scrubbed (checked in other words)
- some countries' parliaments might need to meet to give leaders the go ahead to sign
- 🇬🇧 Commons, Lords need to pass a Bill

8/15

We assume most of the scrubbing has been done already, but the outstanding parts can still take a day or two

How parliaments are involved is messy, but the assumption is at least 🇩🇰🇫🇮🇳🇱🇸🇪 leaders would have to ask their Parliaments

Commons & Lords could sit 30 Dec

9/15

That is why the EU side sees end of the day 23 December as so important - push it any further, and you cannot conclude all the steps by the end of the year

(I assume negotiators are also allowed a day or two off)

10/15

That then means that - even if talks continue beyond tomorrow evening - there will likely *not* be a Deal in place for the start of 1 January

In other words, 🇬🇧 will face a period of No Deal

11/15

Other ideas have been floated to solve this problem - extending the transition period is probably legally not possible. A mini Treaty of some sort might be possible, but would need the UK Government to ask for it... and can you see Johnson going for that? Me neither

12/15

However be aware that if by the end of 23 Dec nothing is agreed, we will *not* see both sides saying it will be No Deal

Neither side wants to pull the 🔌 on talks - so expect plenty of "we will keep trying" rhetoric

13/15

Missing the Sunday 20 Dec deadline made everything a bit harder

Missing the Wednesday 23 Dec deadline will make things very, very hard indeed, and might leave No Deal (for a period) as the most likely outcome

14/15

And what chance everything will be done by the end of 23 December?

It looks like a 🌛🚀 to me. Yes, differences are apparently narrowing a bit on 🎣, but probably not enough or fast enough. And LPF isn't fully solved either...

I'm nervous

15/15

(sod, error here - Wednesday 23 December!)

AGGH, error in tweet 4 - should read Wednesday 23 December!