Implications of EU-UK deal for Scot govt aim
of indy in EU?
- no tariffs or quotas iScot-rUK but plenty of customs checks & bureaucracy, but some trusted traders scheme etc
- iScot wd benefit, as rest of EU, from level-playing field controls
- challenges on services trade espec.
What is clear is that the new 1246 page EU-UK treaty will set a big chunk of future iScotland-rUK relations if iScotland does rejoin the EU. But given limited services access, there will also be much to negotiate bilaterally on services (& on non-EU issues).
So the future potential iScotland-rUK border becomes much clearer through the EU-UK agreement, albeit iScotland in EU wd likely be in the UK/Ireland common travel area, & the relationship EU-UK will doubtless evolve to some extent (or more depending on future UK govts)
EU-UK deal will also help to clarify options for an iScotland transition out of UK & into EU - does it, for eg, seek an initial transition (from EU and rUK) where it remains in EU-UK deal somehow, before agreeing pre-accession Association agreement w EU.
Also note: "The Parties shall consult civil society on the implementation of this Agreement.. in particular through interaction with the domestic advisory groups & the Civil Society Forum" how many reps will Scotland, Wales & NI have & will UK govt pay any attention to it?
No structure for foreign policy cooperation, as European Commission press release underlines: 'no framework in place between UK & EU to..coordinate joint responses to foreign policy challenges, for instance the imposition of sanctions on third country nationals or economies.
Foreign policy is, of course, not devolved but Scotland will be impacted by UK govt choosing an ad hoc foreign policy vis a vis EU at a time of such global instability & the huge dominance of the big 3 i.e. US, EU & China - not a route to increasing influence
Very wide-ranging detailed, level-playing field section, as expected - from state aids & competition to labour, social, environmental & climate issues. Much there for Scottish parliament to focus on in devolved areas & to hold UK govt to account at Westminster for any deviations

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More from @KirstyS_Hughes

25 Nov
New @scer_eu Policy Paper: EU Views of the UK, the future EU-UK relationship & UK's constitutional strains
1/10
scer.scot/database/ident…
EU Views of UK: both appalled, concerned & pragmatic; see UK, since 2016, as unreliable, unpredictable, untrustworthy, as having lost influence, & harming itself in multiple ways.
Yet, EU still wants close, constructive relationship building on a basic deal.
2.
EU open door in Brussels & member states to more foreign & security policy cooperation w UK but anticipate more ad hoc UK approach for ideological reasons, EU bemused by 'global Britain' concept. Less readiness to rapidly negotiate closer economic ties in short term

3.
Read 10 tweets
23 Jan
EU views on upcoming UK-EU relationships talks from my Brussels visit this week:
Core mantra: deal to be done is 'level-playing field for free trade agreement'. No tariffs/quotas is big offer & not given for nothing back. Governance is key.
UK now weaker partner.

Thread

1.
Much concern on level-playing field as v brief commitment in political declaration to 'uphold the common high standards' at end of transition on state aid, competition, social/labour standards, environment, climate change & 'relevant tax matters'.
2.
Concerns too at UK's regulatory divergence goal. What does this mean in principle? Lack of understanding in some quarters of even the basic point that goods coming into EU mkt must meet its regulations.
Aim at dynamic alignment on state aids, prob also tax will be v tough
3.
Read 14 tweets
22 Oct 19
Government WAB impact assessment full of holes but look at detail on GB-NI trade - East-West, West-East or from outside EU.
56% of NI external trade in goods is w GB, 27% w EU.
Freight transfer NI-GB 17.6 million tonnes of which 35% is NI-Scotland
1/

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Tariffs will apply East-West i.e. GB to NI unless goods not at risk of entering EU. Import Declarations & Entry Summary declarations both needed E-W - this is the EU customs border. So rule of origin apply too. And then regulatory compliance.
2/
And as @SamuelMarcLowe has pointed out NI, like GB, faces major negative impact on services.
Not obvious why NI would somehow become a super hot FDI destination given all this plus associated uncertainty
3/
Read 6 tweets
29 Jul 19
So what did we learn from Johnson's visit to Scotland?
That he's either so scared of a few boos from Scottish protesters &/or has such a naive media adviser that he left Bute house by the back door rather than face protesters again
1.
theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
We learnt Johnson has nothing to say to remain-voting Scotland, weak promise of some reheated funding is not meant to smooth huge hit of a no deal Brexit nor be a plausible media story
That Ruth Davidson 'whole heartedly backs' his Brexit strategy (really? there's a strategy?)
2
We learnt Johnson thinks treating Merkel, Macron, Varadkar with contempt, as he bumbles round Faslane & Edinburgh, is his 'strategy' & appropriate

3.
Read 5 tweets
10 Apr 19
If the EU does give UK a 9 month extension (not certain, cd be less, cd be more) then what for Brexit & chances of a people's vote? thread

9 months wd give time to hold another EU referendum - but not that much time as it wd probably need 4-7 months.
1/11
Parliament - which has not yet found a majority for anything on Brexit beyond delay (& triggering A50) - would have to choose to hold a people's vote & pass necessary legislation. This would need Labour & enough Tory MPs to back a PV with remain on the ballot paper.
2/11
100 Tory MPs voted against May on A50 extension yesterday, 80 abstained - the pro-Brexit hardliners of various shades. They may try to topple May or force an election.
So timing cd be EP elections (which must act as a proxy EU referendum) then general election, then PV
3/11
Read 11 tweets
4 Apr 19
Extraordinary & misleading letter from 25 Labour brexiters highlighting 44% choose no deal over remain 42% in latest yougov poll..& that all 'English' regions outside London prefer no deal - short thread on what the data really shows
1.
Data is for GB so N Ireland not included; what the Lab25 call english regions actually includes Wales.
'Regions' are v large: london, rest of south, Wales/Midlands, North, Scotland.
Given multiple choice outcomes top choice is referendum/remain 37%, no deal is 2nd on26%
2.
So Lab25 uninterested in London, Wales, Scotland, NI. Also remarkably uninterested in Labour voters preferences.
Excl dont knows, Lab voters are 70% revoke over no deal, Scotland 64% revoke.
60% of Lab voters think referendum + remain a good outcome, 29% bad excl dont knows
3
Read 5 tweets

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