Thread by @MartinJuhl2

With a potentially more infectious variant lurking around

Rate of transmission of the variant (B.1.1.7), estimated to be 71% (95% CI 67% to 75%) higher than for other variants, and pontentially it may also have a higher viral load.
1/5
bmj.com/content/371/bm…

If the new variant in more infectious, that means R0-value will also be higher, which means a higher threshold for herd immunity, which means more than the original 60% of the population needs to be infected/vaccinated.
2/5
cell.com/immunity/fullt…

As R0 increases, the proportion of the population that must be immune to generate herd immunity increases
(1 – 1/R0).
R0=1.5➡️33%
R0=2➡️50%
R0=2.5➡️60%
R0=3➡️67%
R0=4➡️75%

Thus it is positive that 80% of the DK population is willing to be vaccinated
3/5
nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-1…

Goldman Sachs expect UK will have vaccinated about 50% of its population by March, while CA & US will have done so in April. The EU, AU, & JP will likely reach that point by May, and vaccinations may exceed 70% in all developed economies by the fall
4/5
qz.com/1938908/goldma…

Variant less sensitive to PCR S-domain "Less is known about the mutations’ effect on lateral flow tests.. An investigation into this is ongoing."
Could this be a challenge for quicktests? Worth looking into perhaps?
@henrik_ullum
5/5

https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1340975390412685312?s=20