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contrarian 8888

@contrarian8888

28 Dec

$pdn, $uuuu. Firstly i used to be a huge bull on energy fuels and bought it at $1.6 in 2018 (spring) and sold it in 4/19 at $4. I even told people then it was the height of insanity for people to think (lot of newbies entered uranium then) thinking uranium would be $70 tomorrow

With section 232. Well i enjoyed missing over a 50% collapse in the share px. Seeing uuuu again today at over a $600m mkt cap (including all the newly issued shares over the period ive been out of the stock (+40% increase in share count) vs a $pdn at 350m mkt cap with 4x the

Resources & prodn at 6m when they restart (uuuu will need over 400m$ (i know this from my conversations with mgmt) to get to just 4m prodn capacity & you can tell we’ve again hit insanity with little analysis as new investors chase a stupid 75$M in govt buying which is

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contrarian 8888

@contrarian8888

27 Dec

Possibly the most profound monetary event in decades. It will allow china to impose -ve rates on its citizens and I’m fascinated to see how China allows digital yuan to coexist with btc. wsj.com/articles/china…

As this weekend’s cacophony of cheering (is it just my feed or are people refreshing their browsers every 2 mins and deciding to post the updated BTC px?-so much so that I’m tempted to mute the word btc from my feed). It would be nonetheless interesting to see how btc competes

With An actual govt that has its own digital currency. For those that say btc is more powerful than china-i heard the same about a Jack Ma who seems to be a bug being quickly squashed by the Chinese govt. So maybe I’m behind the times but given the stated risks, I continue to

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contrarian 8888

@contrarian8888

9 Nov

$AR, $AM, $OXY. Nice to see these stocks flying and tech sucking wind.I hope to see this trend continue for many more months with this vaccine news. Surprisingly $ar isnt up that much because of the fear that rising oil will bring back assoc. gas. Firstly most oil cos will use

Rising oil to repair weak balance sheets, Secondly rising oil will drag up ngl realizations and oh year $AR had one of the best weekly realizations for ngl’s last week in a long time- see above. I fully expect AR to get $35 in ngls by next year. (And this puke in gas last week

Doesn’t impact them because they are hedged on gas for 2020. A 70% FCF yield and AR is a $20 stock. What its doing in this zip code (just like many absurdly valued tech names are doing in their zip code is beyond me). But given the stretched rubber band that is growth/value,

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contrarian 8888

@contrarian8888

28 Oct

$AR, $am. .d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_291d3bd008583…

positives; raised production, cut costs from $2.46 to 2.21, raised fcf guidance slighty. Debt facility was reaffirmed at 2.85$bn and their debt level is now $3.2 bn (so i was wrong in my assumption that based on the eqt/cvx transaction AR should double- make it up up 2.6x given

ev should be $5.8bn (based on eqt purchase px)-3.2bn debt or 2.6bn$ mkt cap or 2.8x current px) or close to $10/share.

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contrarian 8888

@contrarian8888

19 Aug

$AR. Yesterday’s performance was downright rediculous. There is a fear from many on twitter who dont understand how converts work with many claiming that mgmt just diluted 69m shares at 4.32$. Firstly, the convert holder cant convert until 2026 and prior to that (from 3/24) the

Co can essentially pay the principal and accrued interest as long as the share px is 30% above 4.32 or $5.6. Now lets assume by 3/24 the share px is $10. The dilution calc is as follows- you pay back the 300m$ (assuming the greenshoe on this deal gets exercised) and the

Diln is 69m shares (300m issue/4.32) *10-300m which is paid of as principal. The diln is (690m-300m)/10$ share px or 39m shares. Not 69m shares. Mgmt said that they had purchased 50mn shares (30m this year at 1.28$) so they didnt pay for covered cap but would do so if stock diln

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contrarian 8888

@contrarian8888

5 Aug

I’m sure many of you have read Stanley Druckemillers speech at the lost tree club years ago. If not its a must read. There are perhaps 2 key takeaways. dropbox.com/s/294et8igxsnu…

1. Invest in the future not the present. All these people salivating over tech are investing in the past decade’s deflationary theme- as inflation reasserts itself the assets that suffered- commodities (nat gas/uranium/oil etc) will do far better than the ones that thrived this

Decade as rates went lower. Tech is nothing but a play on lax anti trust laws (allowing bigger cos), lower tax rates & passive etf flows & lower discount rates. All of these trends are going to reverse esp with baby boomers retiring & selling assets . Commodities which trade

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