Some thoughts on new UK variant #b117 (not a virologist- purely from a public health response view)
1/ Seems this was inevitable & we will see more variants of concern over time. We will constantly have to re-evaluate response measures #covid19
1/ Seems this was inevitable & we will see more variants of concern over time. We will constantly have to re-evaluate response measures #covid19
2/
if vaccines turn out to be less effective against new variants (big “if” here), this will be another reminder that fundamentals of public health + multilayered strategy always name of the game— a vaccine is one part of that- not the whole strategy. No short cuts #covid19
if vaccines turn out to be less effective against new variants (big “if” here), this will be another reminder that fundamentals of public health + multilayered strategy always name of the game— a vaccine is one part of that- not the whole strategy. No short cuts #covid19
3/
Better masks & personal protective equipment for the general public is well overdue; we know masks work; we know aerosols contribute to spread; we know not all masks have effective aerosol protection- better masks are a win-win, & aren’t affected by new variants
#covid19
Better masks & personal protective equipment for the general public is well overdue; we know masks work; we know aerosols contribute to spread; we know not all masks have effective aerosol protection- better masks are a win-win, & aren’t affected by new variants
#covid19
4/
Big question- what is the best strategy to contain new variants? Travel bans? Testing incoming passengers? Doing nothing bc it’s too late?
One thing clear: allowing more rapidly spreading variants to enter in higher frequency doesn’t make sense
Big question- what is the best strategy to contain new variants? Travel bans? Testing incoming passengers? Doing nothing bc it’s too late?
One thing clear: allowing more rapidly spreading variants to enter in higher frequency doesn’t make sense
5/
Again about marginal benefit in trying to stop this v cost
We (USA) have already adopted that doing something is worth it—seemed to have settled on testing people before they come in + quarantine upon arrival #covid19
nytimes.com/2020/12/24/us/…
Again about marginal benefit in trying to stop this v cost
We (USA) have already adopted that doing something is worth it—seemed to have settled on testing people before they come in + quarantine upon arrival #covid19
nytimes.com/2020/12/24/us/…
6/
Big limitations: Testing people before they fly in to the US as we are currently doing w/ incoming UK travelers will catch some cases; won’t catch others who are still in early incubation
Quarantines not really enforceable in the US as we have seen
#covid19
Big limitations: Testing people before they fly in to the US as we are currently doing w/ incoming UK travelers will catch some cases; won’t catch others who are still in early incubation
Quarantines not really enforceable in the US as we have seen
#covid19
7/
I think back to paper by @AdamJKucharski which in part assessed what it would take to est disease in a new population - similar question arises here w/ even more transmissible variant to assess whether it’s too late for certain interventions to work
thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
I think back to paper by @AdamJKucharski which in part assessed what it would take to est disease in a new population - similar question arises here w/ even more transmissible variant to assess whether it’s too late for certain interventions to work
thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
8/
And as we know, all efforts carry costs ($$, time, staff)—these are limited
Unclear to me given limited genomic sequencing in the US where we stand on that cost/benefit for various interventions re new variants washingtonpost.com/world/2020/12/…
And as we know, all efforts carry costs ($$, time, staff)—these are limited
Unclear to me given limited genomic sequencing in the US where we stand on that cost/benefit for various interventions re new variants washingtonpost.com/world/2020/12/…
Cc @mccabe_caitlin @B_resnick @edyong209 @apoorva_nyc @PoliticsReid @carlzimmer @kakape @sciencecohen @germanrlopez @bylenasun
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