Thread by @dbeniam

Ethiopia, papers have been signed and all hell has broke loose.

A new regional bloc has ALREADY been created on Jan 27, 2020 that flew under the radar and under reported on mainstream media: Horn of Africa Cooperation-HoAC.
Current members: Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia

Current international reception has ranged from from unsupportive, negative to doom and gloom. In other words this is not a block that the west particularly wants in existence. But will they engage to stop it?

What do we know so far?
1. The US courting Sudan with better international status and perhaps looking for a TPLF replacement has made many more promises behind the scene.

2. July 9, 2018 Ethiopia restore relationship with Eritrea, July 25, 2018 The US blind sided by such an unexpected move restores $195 million in military aid to Egypt.

3. HoAC is signed Jan, 2020, Egypt receives Dec 23, 2020 $1.3 BILLION in military aid. According to Trump public phone call I can only assume he leaked private conversation in a way he could say "I told you so", but he already knew Egypt would militarily engage Eth.

4. Dec 4, the US orders withdrawal of its troops from Somalia. Expect "unexplained" increased Al Shabab activity destabilizing the region.

5. Month of Dec, the US and western media outlets refuse to recognize the Federal Government of Ethiopias operation in removing TPLF as a legitimate venture. repaints it as war on Tigray, defends TPLF.

6. Sudan moves military to Ethiopian border. For the first time the Sudan president makes public bravado statements although the issue was never new and skirmishes always took place. There is no question that the military aid from Egypt is funding the proxy war in Sudan.

7. Tension between Somalia and Kenya flare up

In other words, all US allies in the region are now actively engaged in hostile activity against the current members of the HoAC.