When states impose restrictions it usually takes a number of days for cases, hospitalizations and deaths to peak. But what exactly is that number? Answers from 6 other states that imposed restrictions from the summer and fall may be able to give us insights on California. Image
The states used in this analysis are from the thread here, where we evaluated the impacts of Michigan's epidemic order on possible case peaks. All data are taken from @COVID19Tracking and policy dates from @JuliaRaifman and team.
Let's first look at Michigan. Compared to California, it seems that Michigan imposed restrictions slightly further along the case curve than CA did (though California's order was regional). Cases peaked 12 days after the order was imposed, hospitalizations 15 and deaths 27. Image
Using data from 5 additional states that imposed various restrictions in the summer, we see the mean number of days from cases imposed to peaks are:

- Cases: 12.3
- Hospitalizations: 17.5
- Deaths: 27.3 Image
Of course, this analysis does not account for the surge brought from holiday gatherings or the fact that California is quite heterogeneous in viral spread (Southern California hospitals hit harder than Northern California, for example). However, it provides useful context.
Why is this useful? By showing how long, on average, it takes from restrictions being placed to seeing a change in cases or hospitalizations, governments can use this data to show people the effects of their actions. Emphasis on a temporary "pause" could ensure more compliance.

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More from @bhrenton

30 Dec
Most vaccine trackers by media outlets have been focusing on one metric: what percentage of the population has been vaccinated. However, the single-most important metric for us to currently watch is what percentage of doses distributed have been administered. Thread: ImageImageImageImage
In the coming weeks and months, these numbers will prove to be important — Americans will want to see what percentage of their community has been vaccinated (ideally, fully vaccinated with two doses). However, we have been not focusing our attention on our last-mile issue.
It has only been within the previous few days that the public has turned its attention to the discrepancies between distribution and administration. This great piece by @NicholasFlorko and @OliviaGoldhill clearly shows the frustration from experts.
statnews.com/2020/12/29/pub…
Read 17 tweets
28 Dec
Tonight's #VaccinateAmerica dashboard update: 28 jurisdictions have vaccine dashboards with a total of 966,990 doses administered. This is an increase of 122,013 from yesterday. Keep in mind that states do back-report, especially with doses over Christmas.
public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19… Image
New view on the dashboard: Roll over each state on the top 2 maps to see curves new doses administered and distributed by date. For example, here are graphs for South Dakota and Florida (this view is best for states that report daily/frequently).
public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19… ImageImage
The CDC also updated its national counts, which you can see on the "CDC Data" tab. According to the CDC, over 2.1 million doses have been administered nationwide. Image
Read 4 tweets
28 Dec
Morning of December 28, 2019: 1 year ago today, I arrived in China with a group of students on a study abroad program, which would be suspended a month later due to the coronavirus outbreak. In this thread I'll do my best to chronicle the developments as I saw them, 1 year on. ImageImageImageImage
The first few weeks of the program were filled with normal classes and excursions around Beijing. It was really only until the third full week when we began becoming aware of what would turn out to be a pandemic. More updates to this thread to come around January 21, 2021.
If you can't wait until then, you can read the daily updates I posted here. Updates will be posted in local time — 13 hours ahead of ET.
offthesilkroad.com/2020/01/27/wuh…
Read 6 tweets
3 Dec
In a few weeks, Pfizer is expected to have its first shipment of vaccine doses ready for administration, pending vaccine approval. How many doses is each state allocated? I went through as many local media sites/press conferences available to find out. (thread)
Most, if not all, states will prioritize healthcare workers in their initial vaccine distribution plans. @KFF data from 2018 show us how many healthcare workers (around 17 million nationally) are in each state.

kff.org/other/state-in…
Pfizer expects around 6.4 million doses in its first round of shipments on December 15. Moderna will then ship an initial round of vaccines. A few weeks later, according to most states, Pfizer will ship a second round of shipments for the first group's second doses, and so on.
Read 11 tweets
3 Dec
I urge all Americans to watch @beijingloafer's gripping new film, 76 Days. The film details the resilience, compassion and dignity displayed by Wuhan's healthcare workers during the first 76 days of the lockdown, treating patients in 4 hospitals.
76daysfilm.com/watch ImageImageImageImage
One particularly poignant scene was at the end, where Yang Li, the head ICU nurse at Wuhan Red Cross Hospital, calls families of the dead to return their phones and other belongings. "We really tried everything," she says as she consoles one family member.
nytimes.com/2020/12/03/mov…
The humanity displayed by these healthcare workers is incredible, and I urge those who have not so far to listen to American counterparts (@Craig_A_Spencer, @meganranney, @choo_ek, @drjessigold and so, so many more) to hear their stories.
washingtonpost.com/goingoutguide/…
Read 5 tweets
3 Dec
Yesterday, @theNASEM released a new report on best practices for testing strategies at colleges, as well as a report on encouraging protective public health behaviors on campuses. @franciediep wrote an excellent summary here. A few key points on both:
chronicle.com/article/live-c…
Let's start with testing.
- Testing is one part of a comprehensive strategy
- Routine collection and analysis of data necessary
- Positive tests should be isolated in hours (modeling assumes this)
- Compliance expectations should be communicated
nap.edu/download/26005
"As one webinar participant remarked, 'Testing is like electricity....You can have college without it, but you really can’t function very well.'"
Read 4 tweets

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