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Benjy Renton Profile picture
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30 Dec 20, 17 tweets, 8 min read
Most vaccine trackers by media outlets have been focusing on one metric: what percentage of the population has been vaccinated. However, the single-most important metric for us to currently watch is what percentage of doses distributed have been administered. Thread:
In the coming weeks and months, these numbers will prove to be important — Americans will want to see what percentage of their community has been vaccinated (ideally, fully vaccinated with two doses). However, we have been not focusing our attention on our last-mile issue.
It has only been within the previous few days that the public has turned its attention to the discrepancies between distribution and administration. This great piece by @NicholasFlorko and @OliviaGoldhill clearly shows the frustration from experts.
statnews.com/2020/12/29/pub…
Others have lamented this issue, including @jasonlschwartz, who co-authored a key paper on vaccine implementation.
healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hl…
Here's another thread from @CT_Bergstrom unpacking this issue.
And an excellent discussion from @ashishkjha.

“Let’s set up field hospitals and tents everywhere and have the National Guard do this,” Jha said to @business. “That last mile has gotten very little investment. I think this is going to be a huge problem.”
Coverage in the past few days (using recent CDC data) has finally drawn attention to this issue. @NBCNews called it "a jarring new analysis."
Launched on December 4, my Vaccine Allocation Dashboard has been tracking this metric starting weeks ago.
Let's remind ourselves of the four steps of vaccine distribution. @darakass lays it out here:
The percentage administered (let's call it that for now) is calculated by taking the doses administered (in each state) and dividing it by either the doses allocated or doses distributed.

Ideally, all jurisdictions would report doses distributed, however only 16 have so far.
The CDC reports this metric nationally, updated three times per week. In the absence of doses distributed for many states, I currently use the number of doses allocated for each jurisdiction.
The number of doses allocated comes from OWS and is updated once per week for the next week. Yes, it takes 1-3 days from doses being allocated to being able to be distributed (shipping time), however, we can neglect this difference for now, since we don't have better data.
Another factor which can dramatically alter the percentage administered is the lag time in doses being reported as administered. This is why the latest chart in the dashboard also reports the number of days elapsed since a state's last report.
Our final result is this graph of the percentage administered in each state, which I started visualizing 8 days ago and Bloomberg posted a nearly identical version today.
So what are the bottlenecks here? @AnnieGrayerCNN, @SaraMurray and @EllieCKaufman have answers:
- Reporting lags
- FDA quality control
- Production
- State distribution (reaching communities and coordinating allocations)
cnn.com/2020/12/23/hea…
Why does this all matter? To make better policy decisions, we need to understand every step of the process and fix every issue along the way. We also need the public to understand the data being reported and engage with it on many levels, as this will foster transparency.
Finally, we need clear communication from government officials and for them to quit shifting blame. Communication will be key towards gaining trust in the vaccine process, and we look forward hopefully receiving answers at tomorrow's briefing.
You can track all the data discussed here, and more, at the Vaccine Allocation Dashboard here, which is updated daily.

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Benjy Renton Profile picture
28 Dec 20
Tonight's #VaccinateAmerica dashboard update: 28 jurisdictions have vaccine dashboards with a total of 966,990 doses administered. This is an increase of 122,013 from yesterday. Keep in mind that states do back-report, especially with doses over Christmas.
public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19… Image
New view on the dashboard: Roll over each state on the top 2 maps to see curves new doses administered and distributed by date. For example, here are graphs for South Dakota and Florida (this view is best for states that report daily/frequently).
public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19… ImageImage
The CDC also updated its national counts, which you can see on the "CDC Data" tab. According to the CDC, over 2.1 million doses have been administered nationwide. Image
Read 4 tweets
Benjy Renton Profile picture
28 Dec 20
Morning of December 28, 2019: 1 year ago today, I arrived in China with a group of students on a study abroad program, which would be suspended a month later due to the coronavirus outbreak. In this thread I'll do my best to chronicle the developments as I saw them, 1 year on. ImageImageImageImage
The first few weeks of the program were filled with normal classes and excursions around Beijing. It was really only until the third full week when we began becoming aware of what would turn out to be a pandemic. More updates to this thread to come around January 21, 2021.
If you can't wait until then, you can read the daily updates I posted here. Updates will be posted in local time — 13 hours ahead of ET.
offthesilkroad.com/2020/01/27/wuh…
Read 6 tweets
Benjy Renton Profile picture
27 Dec 20
When states impose restrictions it usually takes a number of days for cases, hospitalizations and deaths to peak. But what exactly is that number? Answers from 6 other states that imposed restrictions from the summer and fall may be able to give us insights on California. Image
The states used in this analysis are from the thread here, where we evaluated the impacts of Michigan's epidemic order on possible case peaks. All data are taken from @COVID19Tracking and policy dates from @JuliaRaifman and team.
Let's first look at Michigan. Compared to California, it seems that Michigan imposed restrictions slightly further along the case curve than CA did (though California's order was regional). Cases peaked 12 days after the order was imposed, hospitalizations 15 and deaths 27. Image
Read 6 tweets
Benjy Renton Profile picture
3 Dec 20
In a few weeks, Pfizer is expected to have its first shipment of vaccine doses ready for administration, pending vaccine approval. How many doses is each state allocated? I went through as many local media sites/press conferences available to find out. (thread)
Most, if not all, states will prioritize healthcare workers in their initial vaccine distribution plans. @KFF data from 2018 show us how many healthcare workers (around 17 million nationally) are in each state.

kff.org/other/state-in…
Pfizer expects around 6.4 million doses in its first round of shipments on December 15. Moderna will then ship an initial round of vaccines. A few weeks later, according to most states, Pfizer will ship a second round of shipments for the first group's second doses, and so on.
Read 11 tweets
Benjy Renton Profile picture
3 Dec 20
I urge all Americans to watch @beijingloafer's gripping new film, 76 Days. The film details the resilience, compassion and dignity displayed by Wuhan's healthcare workers during the first 76 days of the lockdown, treating patients in 4 hospitals.
76daysfilm.com/watch ImageImageImageImage
One particularly poignant scene was at the end, where Yang Li, the head ICU nurse at Wuhan Red Cross Hospital, calls families of the dead to return their phones and other belongings. "We really tried everything," she says as she consoles one family member.
nytimes.com/2020/12/03/mov…
The humanity displayed by these healthcare workers is incredible, and I urge those who have not so far to listen to American counterparts (@Craig_A_Spencer, @meganranney, @choo_ek, @drjessigold and so, so many more) to hear their stories.
washingtonpost.com/goingoutguide/…
Read 5 tweets
Benjy Renton Profile picture
3 Dec 20
Yesterday, @theNASEM released a new report on best practices for testing strategies at colleges, as well as a report on encouraging protective public health behaviors on campuses. @franciediep wrote an excellent summary here. A few key points on both:
chronicle.com/article/live-c…
Let's start with testing.
- Testing is one part of a comprehensive strategy
- Routine collection and analysis of data necessary
- Positive tests should be isolated in hours (modeling assumes this)
- Compliance expectations should be communicated
nap.edu/download/26005
"As one webinar participant remarked, 'Testing is like electricity....You can have college without it, but you really can’t function very well.'"
Read 4 tweets

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