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mike schussler Profile picture
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28 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Over 4 million vaccine shots have been administrated by yesterday across 20 odd countries (probably more as not all countries have reported yet.) from Costa Rica to USA. By next week another 20 or so join the effort from Argentina to India to Slovakia. Wonder where SA is?
Maybe we hear more tonight. It looks like about 40 countries will have vaccines rolling out by mid-January. US and China already surpassed 1 million jabs each this weekend. Russia at 700k UK 800K.
See many poor countries getting plans together too. IS SA able to do this without too many hands having to be washed?
one other thing to note twice as many people have had a jab so far than have died in the world. That is at least some goodnews

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mike schussler Profile picture
29 Dec
Countries that have started vaccines or will today.
1.Argentina
2.Bahrain
3.Belgium
4.Canada
5.Chile
6.China
7.Costa Rica
8.Croatia
9.Cyprus
10.Czech Republic
11.Denmark
12.Estonia
13.Finland
14.France
15.Germany
16.Greece
17.Hungary
18.Israel
19.Italy
20.Kuwait
21.Lithuania
22.Malta
23.Mexico
24.Oman
25.Poland
26.Portugal
27.Qatar
28.Romania
29.Russia
30.Saudi Arabia
31.Serbia
32.Slovakia
33.Spain
34.Switzerland
35.The United Arab Emirates
36.United Kingdom
37.United States of America
The following should start next week/ 1st week of January.
1 Brazil
2. Bulgaria
3. India
4. Ireland
5. Latvia
6. Peru
7. Sweden.
Announcements expected soon are Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Fiji, Croatia, Tunisia, Turkey, etc.
Read 5 tweets
mike schussler Profile picture
4 Sep
Your model predicts massive deaths & hospitalizations, you fail to include other factors such as the economy blame the media for alarmist predictions! businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/202… via @BusinessLiveSA
"Our projections of the potential number of cumulative deaths have always been accompanied by ranges representing the uncertainty associated with them; whether the reporting on them was alarmist or not is outside of our control”
Do we need a covid commission to find out which media used this model to make Alarmist statements? Love it when a model that looks at one aspect only and is then wrong by a massive margin and destroys lives via hunger blames alarmists
Read 6 tweets
mike schussler Profile picture
17 Aug
Where have all the workers gone. 11 years ago train and bus passengers where 53 million a month. The last quarter the average was 67 000. That means less than 0,2% (a fifth of a percent!) were left in the system. A 100% decline in last quarter yes Covid but what about May/June?
Assuming monthly weekday journey (with leave entitlement) this would represent 1,35 million working adults. Same calculation means less than 3 500 last quarter on the rail. Even with pick up less than 7500 in June!!!
Busses at less than 11 million average or less than 600 000 workers which means here too there are 1,4 million adults on a monthly basis missing. Thus the total missing from work on average in the last quarter is 2,75 million
Read 13 tweets
mike schussler Profile picture
17 Jul
Do lockdowns work? Countries with less mobility from 5 activities such as work, public transport over last 4 months seem to have highest death rates. (Red equals at least 3 time world average death rate). Grey is above average but below 3 times. Green is below average. discuss..
Countries responded differently but mobility data from the norm gives actual activity data via cell phone movements. Over than Sweden the top ten death rates all had less people at work, less in shops, less entertainment & travelled less on public transport.
Peru which locked down early and now has the longest lockdown is in the top 10 death rates of countries with more than a million people! So did Chile and Spain. The virus does not care seemingly.
Read 5 tweets
mike schussler Profile picture
20 May
Model forecasts for Coved19 deaths in SA show SA death rate 18 times of current world average! Currently, the whole world daily deaths are about 4300 and decreasing. That means on average SA will record about 6% of the world deaths everyday. @waldimar 1
Furthermore, the measured symptomatic cases are 4,8 million the model suggests we will add 25% to the world caseload with just 0,75% of the world population! SA will have the 3rd highest death rate and the highest caseload ever! 2 @netwerk24
Of countries with over 1 million people, Belgium had the highest deaths per million people followed by Spain. Then SA. both these countries are seeing far slower deaths now and are 20 years older than the typical South African. 3
Read 7 tweets
mike schussler Profile picture
17 May
The growth in corona cases shows SA lockdown is not working. All these positive cases would have been transmitted during the lockdown. The weekly rate of infections are still on the up and rate of growth is speeding up
Yes, the number of tests is higher but as can be seen, the % test that tests positive is higher too. Again this transmission happened during the lockdown.
The growth rate of deaths is lower but here too the deaths are growing despite the lockdown. Again growth is the rolling weekly data compared to the week before.
Read 7 tweets

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