Tweet

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @mikeschussler

mike schussler

@mikeschussler

28 Dec

Over 4 million vaccine shots have been administrated by yesterday across 20 odd countries (probably more as not all countries have reported yet.) from Costa Rica to USA. By next week another 20 or so join the effort from Argentina to India to Slovakia. Wonder where SA is?

Maybe we hear more tonight. It looks like about 40 countries will have vaccines rolling out by mid-January. US and China already surpassed 1 million jabs each this weekend. Russia at 700k UK 800K.

See many poor countries getting plans together too. IS SA able to do this without too many hands having to be washed?

Read 4 tweets

mike schussler

@mikeschussler

4 Sep

@BusinessLiveSA

Your model predicts massive deaths & hospitalizations, you fail to include other factors such as the economy blame the media for alarmist predictions! businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/202… via @BusinessLiveSA

"Our projections of the potential number of cumulative deaths have always been accompanied by ranges representing the uncertainty associated with them; whether the reporting on them was alarmist or not is outside of our control”

Do we need a covid commission to find out which media used this model to make Alarmist statements? Love it when a model that looks at one aspect only and is then wrong by a massive margin and destroys lives via hunger blames alarmists

Read 6 tweets

mike schussler

@mikeschussler

17 Aug

Where have all the workers gone. 11 years ago train and bus passengers where 53 million a month. The last quarter the average was 67 000. That means less than 0,2% (a fifth of a percent!) were left in the system. A 100% decline in last quarter yes Covid but what about May/June?

Assuming monthly weekday journey (with leave entitlement) this would represent 1,35 million working adults. Same calculation means less than 3 500 last quarter on the rail. Even with pick up less than 7500 in June!!!

Busses at less than 11 million average or less than 600 000 workers which means here too there are 1,4 million adults on a monthly basis missing. Thus the total missing from work on average in the last quarter is 2,75 million

Read 13 tweets

mike schussler

@mikeschussler

17 Jul

Do lockdowns work? Countries with less mobility from 5 activities such as work, public transport over last 4 months seem to have highest death rates. (Red equals at least 3 time world average death rate). Grey is above average but below 3 times. Green is below average. discuss..

Countries responded differently but mobility data from the norm gives actual activity data via cell phone movements. Over than Sweden the top ten death rates all had less people at work, less in shops, less entertainment & travelled less on public transport.

Peru which locked down early and now has the longest lockdown is in the top 10 death rates of countries with more than a million people! So did Chile and Spain. The virus does not care seemingly.

Read 5 tweets

mike schussler

@mikeschussler

20 May

@waldimar

Model forecasts for Coved19 deaths in SA show SA death rate 18 times of current world average! Currently, the whole world daily deaths are about 4300 and decreasing. That means on average SA will record about 6% of the world deaths everyday. @waldimar 1

@netwerk24

Furthermore, the measured symptomatic cases are 4,8 million the model suggests we will add 25% to the world caseload with just 0,75% of the world population! SA will have the 3rd highest death rate and the highest caseload ever! 2 @netwerk24

Of countries with over 1 million people, Belgium had the highest deaths per million people followed by Spain. Then SA. both these countries are seeing far slower deaths now and are 20 years older than the typical South African. 3

Read 7 tweets

mike schussler

@mikeschussler

17 May

The growth in corona cases shows SA lockdown is not working. All these positive cases would have been transmitted during the lockdown. The weekly rate of infections are still on the up and rate of growth is speeding up

Yes, the number of tests is higher but as can be seen, the % test that tests positive is higher too. Again this transmission happened during the lockdown.

The growth rate of deaths is lower but here too the deaths are growing despite the lockdown. Again growth is the rolling weekly data compared to the week before.

Read 7 tweets

Share this page!

mike schussler

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @mikeschussler

mike schussler

mike schussler

mike schussler

mike schussler

mike schussler

mike schussler

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Like this author's thread?